El Lefty Malo

El Nuevo Lefty Malo

2007-04-23T09:30:00.000-07:00

Amigos y amigas, stalkers, family and tax collectors,

I've joined forces with a new blog network, Blogs by Fans. Very little has changed, except my URL and my new logo, which I did all by myself just before nap-time. Goes to show you how nice they are over at Blogs By Fans -- they have a world-class Web design expert who wears little black-framed eyeglasses on 24-hour call to do the bidding of their bloggers, but no problem, I can do my own logo. How cool is that?

Please set your phasers on stun and your Lefty Malo bookmarks to this URL:

http://www.leftymalo.com

¡Como no! We're still ironing out a few bits here and there; any and all feedback on the new site is extremely welcome.

If Confidence Is Sexy...

2007-04-21T00:24:00.001-07:00

Armando Benitez is on the cover of this year's swimsuit issue. Quoth Benizzar El-Mando after tonight's ugly save: "It's time. Armando's back."

Two walks, only nine strikes in 22 pitches, a pocketful of hanging spliders (hanging splitters/sliders: indistinguishable). You are so BACK, man, we're going to call you Wally.

PLODAG: B. Lamar. Yeah, he looked at a strike three, but he hit two frozen ropes and just missed putting one in the drink. It went 450 feet, but up, not out. That was fun. Runner-up: Special Agent Jack Taschner, who may soon qualify for Lefty Malo status if he keeps up that .86 WHIP and .071 batting average against.

Look at Lowry

2007-04-20T08:26:00.000-07:00

The life of most major leaguers is one of constant adjustment. Rookie sensations do not stay sensational for long as the opposition starts to pick apart their weaknesses and exploit them. Perhaps the most talented never need to adjust -- how long has Mariano Rivera been the world's best closer with basically one pitch? -- but for mere mortals, it's change or die.

Which brings me to Noah Lowry. He was a rookie sensation, and through his first 53 big-league games, he was well above a league-average pitcher. Not lights-out, but let's call him a solid B student. That's not easy to do for a soft-tossing lefty with complicated mechanics. Not only was his ERA above league average, but he struck out a lot of batters. Through 2005 he whiffed 249 in 303 innings, or 7.3 Ks per 9 innings. Not Pedro Martinez-like, but very strong. And anyone who saw games like this one could spot his calling card instantly: a "Bugs Bunny" change-up that made batters look cartoonish as they swung and missed.

Last year, Lowry hurt himself in his first start. He only missed a month, but the season never quite got back on track. He had his usual August surge, but note that even with his success, he didn't deliver the same strikeout rate as before. He's not fooling batters as often. He hasn't struck out more than 6 batters in a game since September 2005.

The main reason: hitters have adjusted. They wait and wait and wait for the changeup, and when it's flat, without that two-seam, sinking action, they whack it. Combine that with injury and control problems, and you suddenly have a mediocre pitcher. Mike Matheny saw it early. In 2005 he was telling Lowry to throw more curveballs, fewer changeups. Throwing the curveball well is another matter, and yesterday's game, in which Lowry threw several beautiful curves for strikes, could be a sign that the adjustment period is starting to pay off.

* Fuel for the Lincecum fire: Baseball Prospectus today ranks the top under-25 right-handed starters in the game, majors and minors combined. It's subscription-only, but here's the final list to tease you:

1. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers (24)
2. Felix Hernandez, Mariners (21)
3. Jered Weaver, Angels (24)
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants (23)
5. Philip Hughes, Yankees (21)
6. Josh Johnson, Marlins (23)
7. Rich Harden, A’s (25)
8. Justin Verlander, Tigers (24)
9. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (21)
10. Kevin Slowey, Twins (23)

Post-Game Report 4/19/07

2007-04-19T18:53:00.000-07:00

Slide, Ryan, Slide! On second thought...

You didn't see the game? Watch the highlight clips (go here, click on the game and click on "top plays" -- don't blame me for the Right Guard ad) and laugh. Laugh because the Giants beat a stumbling, bumbling, fumbling Cardinals squad two games straight. Albert Pujols should buy Kip Wells a Porsche, because Wells was cruising until Albert's bonehead error in the 5th. Wells was never the same. The door opened a crack, and the Giants kicked it in. Or in Klesko's case, did a bellyflop/faceplant through it.

The Cards were also without Scott Rolen (food poisoning) and Jim Edmonds. Scott Spiezio batted cleanup. This was not a prime-time team. This weekend presents a real test, with the very young, very good D'Backs coming to town. Small break: The Giants will not face Brandon Webb. Weird stat of the weekend: Rich Aurilia, who usually crushes lefties, is 4-for-27 lifetime against Doug Davis, tomorrow's D'Back hurler.

But I get ahead of myself.

PLODAG: Noah! Runners-up: Ryan Klesko, 3 for 4 with two extra base hits. Can he please have more playing time? Randy Winn, who didn't get a hit but drove in two runners from third with less than two out. I'll take that from a #8 hitter every time, although today he was batting 6th. Details, details.

For Those About to Rock.........Fire!

2007-04-19T08:58:00.000-07:00

Every field has its canon: history's most eminent molecular biologists, the top 50 sub-Arctic backpacking trips, the world's largest rubberband balls. We all need our anchor points to fasten us to the foolish notion that the universe has order.

And in the canon of all-time greatest Giants games of 2007, last night's displaces all others at the top. "All others" being Monday's 8-0 shutout of Colorado.

It's a wee canon. Canonito. Canonichek. [Yes, I've used that joke recently. When will you guys understand that I only do this to amuse myself?]

Morris pitched quite well, though the walks, 4 in nearly 7 innings, still trouble me. The rotation has pitched very well in six of the last seven games, but with the exception of Ortiz in Pittsburgh and Cain in Colorado, the walk totals remain troubling. With an aging defense, you simply can't keep putting free men on base and not get burned.

The National League staff average: 52 BB / 94 K.
The Giants: 50 BB / 77 K.

Walk-strikeout ratio is not the only indicator of success by any means. So far the best team ERA in the N.L. (2.50) belongs to the team (the Mets) with the worst BB-K ratio (61-72). Let's see how long that lasts as the weather heats up and batters take better swings. Rule of thumb: Lots of walks and relatively few Ks make it that much harder for a pitcher to do his job. It's not just stathead mumbo-jumbo, it's common sense.

PLODAG: Jonathan Sanchez, for three gutsy innings and perhaps the most heads-up play of the year when he didn't get faked out by the double steal in the 12th. Kid cool. Props to Richie, hitting line drives and playing all 12 with a sproinged groin.

***

NOT QUITE P.M. UPDATE: "In my heaving misery, I stared at my excrescence and thought, this puddle of putrid poison vomit is brought to you by the Los Angeles Dodgers."

Neal Pollack is writing about the All-You-Can-Eat Pavilion at Dodger Stadium, but I like to think of it as an omen for the season. And next season. And next...

(Thanks to Laz for La Link.)

'Um

2007-04-18T12:43:00.000-07:00

After Tim Lincecum dazzled yet again last night in triple-A -- 11 strikeouts and three hits in 6 2/3 shutout innings -- the question has becum, um, where are the Giants going to put 'um?

Here are his triple-A totals so far:

18 2/3 IP / 5 BB / 28 K / 9 H / 0 (zero) runs

With more games like last night, the Giants will be sorely tempted to bring him up and into the bullpen. There's no obvious place for him to go into the rotation right now.

The other solution is to make a place by trading a starter. If that's the route, then who? And for what? Bullpen help? Prospects? Hitting? Caution: if you trade a starter and promote Lincecum, you've instantly depleted the organizational depth in case of injury. Behind Lincecum, there aren't any great rotation prospects who could fill in for a month. Perhaps that's a risk worth taking.

Post-Game Report 4/17/07

2007-04-17T20:33:00.000-07:00

Ugh. I blame Bruce Bochy for this stinker. Here's why:

1) Taking out Matt Cain after seven innings. Cain had thrown 110 pitches, yes. But the previous two had been low-stress, so why not see if he could breeze through one more inning? If anyone got on, Boch could have had warm arms in the bullpen ready to go.

2) Refusing to pinch-hit. In the 8th, with Linden on 2nd after Bonds's leadoff double, Feliz came up with two outs. The Giants were already up 3-0, but this is Coors Field. Every run is important. Why not pinch-hit Klesko or Sweeney for Feliz? And why Dave Roberts in the 9th against lefty closer Brian Fuentes? Lance Niekro was on the bench. Apparently all those extra first basemen are only to be used in dire emergency.

Note that in the 8th, Durham's inability to get Linden to third was a big play, too. That wasn't Bochy's fault. Nor was the bad luck of two infield hits in the bottom of the 8th. Even with Cain pitching into the 8th, and the aforementioned pinch-hitting moves, the Giants may not have won. Linden was supposed to be in there for defense, yet the winning hit clanged off his glove. (I didn't see it, but Jon Miller described it on the radio as catchable "after a long run." The kind of catch defensive replacements are paid to make.) That wasn't Bochy's fault. But I don't think he gave the Giants the best opportunity to win tonight.

Furthermore, where in the hell is Klesko? Why didn't he start at 1st and Aurilia at 3rd? Is he injured?

PLODAG: Cain, doomed to wander the earth barefoot eating nothing but grasshoppers, in vain search for the meaning of existence and a major-league win.

Ain't No Haft Steppin'

2007-04-17T10:06:00.000-07:00

And who's pitching tonight? Big Daddy Cain.

But on to today's topic. As you may know, former Mercury News beat writer Chris Haft has taken over for longtime Malo whipping boy Rich Draper as the MLB "reporter" who covers the Giants. Despite the disclaimers on every story that the work is not subject to approval of MLB or its clubs, Draper turned the job into a fascinating exercise in toadyism. His mix of purple prose and embarrassing praise became a kind of art form, and I miss the big lunk.

New guy Haft is much more reasonable, but in his most recent mailbag column, I detected the first major whiff of corporate lackeyhood.

The first questioner asks about the possibility of Todd Linden soon taking over for Randy Winn and slags Sabean for Winn's contract extension. (It kicked in this year and pays Randy $23 M through 2009.)

Writes the reader: Winn will never live up to the contract Brian Sabean foolishly gave him for one uncharacteristically good month, and the sooner Linden gets in the starting lineup, the better.

Haft responds with a warning that he's going to get grouchy, then he backtracks to praise the question:

I have written that Linden appears poised to play himself into a more prominent role, so I'll acknowledge that what you suggested is a possibility.

Then he unbacktracks.

But I can't stand second-guessing, and that's what you're doing by criticizing the Winn signing.

Unless you know how someone first-guessed, you can't accuse him of second-guessing. Plenty of people criticized the Winn extension at the time it was signed. (As usual, I tried to weasel my way out of a grand pronouncement: "The Winn extension isn't too bad unless his big paychecks in '08 and '09 prevent the Giants from signing a game-changing superduperstar.")

The questioner might have been far more critical than I was back then, in which case he isn't second-guessing now. He's just bitching. And for good reason. It was a foolish contract, which Haft torturously tries to defend.

Given the finish Winn had in 2005 -- and by the way, it was two months, not one -- there's not a general manager in the Majors who wouldn't have tried to retain him.

Yes there is, and his name's Beane, Billy Beane, although no doubt there are others, especially at nearly $8 M a year with generous no-trade privileges. If Haft were the captain of the U.S.S. Critical Thinking, he would have just abandoned ship with that previous sentence.

Winn's batting only .194, but he's using the whole field and trying to bunt for hits, so at least he's thinking up there.

Using the whole field to make outs instead of using one teeny-tiny sliver of it. That's thinking! And since when does Bunting for Hits = Thinking? Does Barry Bonds, who prefers hitting home runs over bunting, not think up there? Why no, he's known to be one of the smartest hitters ever to play baseball.

Again, Linden might ultimately eclipse Winn in right field, but if that happens, it'll be because he earned it, not because of some knee-jerk judgment.

I hate knee-jerk judgments, like, oh, I don't know, giving an historically mediocre player a three-year, $23 M contract extension based on the two most abnormal months of his career?

And if Linden "eclipses" Winn this year, so what, you might ask. The Giants can trade Winn and open a spot....unless Randy says no. According to this site, he has a full no-trade clause this year and limited no-trade rights in 2008-2009. Was the no-trade the only thing that kept Randy Winn from signing with Cleveland or Pittsburgh or the Yankees or the Bridgeport Bluefish? No: he signed his extension in February 2006, eight months before he was scheduled to become a free agent.

I can see Sabean -- or an apologist like Haft -- arguing that it was worth the calculated risk that Winn's two spectacular months presaged a career bump. By locking him up at roughly $8 M a year, the Giants hoped to catch lightning in a bottle. OK, fine, but at least admit the lightning has so far been more like a fluorescent bulb. Without the cost savings associated with fluorescent bulbs.

There, I'm done being grouchy.

Me, too. Let's talk about something happier, like Pedro Feliz getting traded.

Post-Game Report 4/16/07

2007-04-16T21:56:00.000-07:00

Best game of the year so far, n'est-ce pas? I guess Zito loves him some Coors Field the way Russ Ortiz [used to love him some donuts].

Ed. note: after an email complaint, I decided to change the last part of the preceding sentence in order not to mix potentially offensive flippancy with solemnity in the same post. Don't expect such political correctness ever again. Ever.

Player of da game (PLODAG): Barry II. Two hits in six innings at the Mile High? What do you do for an encore?

On a somber note, my condolences to everyone at Virginia Tech. It's horrible, devastating. Let's also understand that this type of event -- a few dozen innocent people slaughtered -- happens every day somewhere in Iraq, sometimes more than once a day. I'm not making a political statement. It's more a request amid the U.S. media frenzy to put random acts of violence in perspective. They're equally horrible no matter where they happen, whether it's a senseless drive-by in the Bayview or a massacre in Darfur. Man's inhumanity to man is a puzzling thing.

Things to Do in Denver When You're 3-7

2007-04-16T07:44:00.001-07:00

The wet weekend may be a blessing for one Giant, Russ Ortiz, who threw 120 pitches Friday night and now won't pitch again until Friday. More irksome are the three extra days' rest for Barry Zito, who's already having trouble with his command. Inactivity doesn't usually help such problems. Added to the altitude of Coors Field, and this may not be his turn to get sorted out. His only previous start at Coors was very good, though judging from the high hit + walk total, perhaps a bit lucky.

And how fare the Rox so far? At 5-7, they could fall into the cellar if the Giants win both games. Their leading hitter for average, Kaz Matsui (.361 / .395 / .472), just went on the DL. Their new center fielder Willy Taveras, acquired from Houston this winter, is just 5 for 34 with one extra base hit. Rookies Troy Tulowitzki, shortstop, and Chris Iannetta, catcher, are also scuffling. The big guys Holliday, Hawpe, Helton and Atkins are generally doing well but nothing outstanding. Note the team has only played three games at home. In six games at San Diego and L.A., they scored a combined 14 runs.

Their pitching staff has kept them in ballgames, but according to a wire report yesterday the bullpen is "depleted." The Giants bullpen is definitely not depleted, another silver lining from the rainouts in Pittsburgh.

The Giants tonight face Jeff Francis, a Zito-ish lefty who gives the Giants fits at Coors, and tomorrow Jason Hirsh, a rookie who also came over in the Jason Jennings-Tavares trade.

Tonight's fun facts: Despite playing in the same division, Dave Roberts has never had an at-bat against Francis; Randy Winn is 1 for 18 lifetime and Todd Linden 4 for 9 with 2 HRs.

***

Fun link: Rusted Robot has a Q&A with Cubs TV play-by-play guy Len Kasper. Seems he's a Monty Python fan, and his broadcast partner Bob Brenly has "awesome musical taste."

Post Game Report: 4/13/07

2007-04-13T20:08:00.000-07:00

As Dusty used to say, "Russell." If you didn't see or listen to the game, and all you know is the final line -- Giants win 8-5, Ortiz gives up all 5 in 8 and 2/3 IP -- please know this: Russ Ortiz was excellent. A little shaky through three, then he dominated. Dominated. And these Pirates are no pushovers. Bay, Sanchez, LaRoche: some damn fine hitters.

Bochy did a stalwart thing to try to get Ortiz the complete game, but, ach, 'twas not in the stars. It would have been his first complete game since 2004. It was his first win since August of 2005. Congratulations, Russ. Time to thank the Big Guy upstairs, and remember, no donuts to celebrate. Ah, yeah.

PODAG (Playa of da game): Duh. Runner-up: Barry Bonds, with two homers and four RBI.

To All The G's I Have Loved Before (2007)

2007-04-13T09:25:00.000-07:00

Chalk one up for Brian Sabean, as Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com reports: "The Giants did well to acquire Class AAA left-hander Travis Blackley for outfielder Jason Ellison, according to a scout who says that Blackley was one of the better pitchers in the Mariners' system. Blackley, 24, pitched briefly for the Mariners in 2004, posting a 10.04 ERA in 26 innings, but by then he was experiencing shoulder trouble. He missed all of '05 due to surgery to repair a torn labrum."

Take that report with a big knock on wood, with the hope we don't wake up tomorrow to find Jonathan Sanchez traded for Kirk Saarloos.

Speaking of Ellie (one AB so far with the M's), here's my annual early-season roundup of ex-Giants we've all known and at times loved:

Marquis Grissom, Robb Nen, Kirk Rueter, J.T. Snow: Still retired.

Edgardo Alfonzo: Last spotted hitting .286 with the Bridgeport Bluefish.

Shairon Martis (traded for Mike Stanton): Starting for Washington's affiliate in the high-A Carolina League. That's a nice smile!

David Aardsma: Pitching very well so far in the White Sox bullpen. Subject of one of the oddest soundbites last spring, from one of the Chicago papers: "David Aardsma's improvement in the final two weeks of spring training helped him win a spot on the Cubs Opening Day roster. Aardsma credited former teammate Michael Wuertz with helping him develop a second pitch to complement his 95-m.p.h. fastball." Huh? I could swear when the Giants drafted him he had a "second pitch," called a curveball. Did he forget how to throw it? Was it an optical illusion?

Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser: Who?

Jerome Williams: Starting for the Nationals, still only 25 years old.

Moises Alou: Not injured yet and has even stolen a base. How much you wanna bet he plays in 150 games this year?

Scott Eyre: Getting cuffed around with the Cubs so far. Did anyone notice he struck out 73 batters in 61 innings last year? That's good. He also gave up 11 home runs. That's bad.

Yorvit Torrealba: Still a backup catcher. Now hanging out with LaTroy Hawkins in Colorado.

Shawn Estes: Underwent Tommy John surgery last summer. Rehabbing under a minor-league contract with the Padres.

Carlos Villanueva: Who, you say? He was traded for Wayne Franklin at the beginning of 2004. Now he's 23 and pitching in the Brewers bullpen. He debuted last year and did quite well.

Which marginal ex-Giant do you take particular pleasure in tracking? Share with the rest of the class.

Frandsno

2007-04-12T09:23:00.000-07:00

In the comments to yesterday's post, BigMerv tipped us off to Frandsen's demotion. (First-time commenter brings the news! Atta babe, Merv.) Here's the official blurb. However, Sweeney has not yet been placed on the active roster, so perhaps there's more game afoot, Watson.

Until we know more, let's assume Frandsen has indeed been Fresnoed.

[P.M. UPDATE: According to a poster on this thread, Duane Kuiper hinted this morning on KNBR that Frandsen wouldn't be down on the farm long.]

Spur of the moment contest: a free beer to the first person who cleverly rewrites the Creedence tune "Lodi" to reflect Frandsen's situation. Start with the refrain, "Oh Lord, I'm stuck in a-Fresno again."

The kid needs at-bats, so all is not lost. Perhaps with daily work at shortstop he'll get good enough to replace Omar Vizquel next year.

Quick notes from last night: Noah Lowry's control is distressing. Four walks, only one strikeout. He's not fooling batters like he did his first year or so, and I think he knows it. The walks may be about confidence as much as mechanics.

I love Lowry like I love all lefties -- i.e. con dulzura y pasión -- but I fear the league may have caught onto his act, and he needs to make big adjustments to regain top form. He can probably be adequate for years to come, but we may again never see the Lowry we knew and loved in 2005.

Linden in right field: a signal to Randy Winn? I like it.

Player of the game: Dave Roberts. Two singles, two steals, one fantastic catch to save three runs.

Sweeney's Coming, Everybody Look Busy

2007-04-11T08:23:00.000-07:00

Yes, our favorite Giant martyr, nailed to the cross of Barry Lamar and left to hang, is coming back from the limbo of the disabled list either tomorrow or Friday. Roll that stone away, brother, and rise.

So who's the sacrificial lamb? Bruce Bochy seemed to figure out last night that Pedro Feliz isn't getting the job done, hasn't been getting the job done, and will never get the job done. But Feliz is earning $5 million this year, so don't expect the Giants to cut him just yet. (I don't think they can trade him, either, not for a couple months.)

Ryan Klesko isn't going anywhere. He needs to play more, not less, and his time should come at Feliz's expense. Lance Niekro, who made the team thanks to Sweeney's opening-day DL assignment, has gotten all of four at-bats so far. He should only start against lefties, and the Giants have only faced one lefty starter. Plus the team they've played five out of eight times, San Diego, has no lefties in its bullpen. If Niekro stays, his opportunities should come more frequently, but it's telling that on the Giants Web site, Niekro's position is listed as "-".

[Ed. note: If Niekro has any chance to start against a RHP, it'll be tonight. Lifetime he's 7-for-11 with a homer and four doubles vs. Greg Maddux.]

The only guy who's played less and deserves more is Kevin Frandsen. One at-bat in eight games. He's basically a late-inning pinch-runner on this team. Send him down to play everyday in Fresno? It's possible, but team speed will be further diminished. When the game's on the line and Molina gets on base late, Frandsen is valuable.

You have to ask yourself, WWJD: What Would John Schuerholtz do? Because these days, asking "WWBD?" -- What Would Brian Sabean Do? -- is enough to drive anyone to desperately seek relief from a higher power.

*****

NOW LISTENING TO: M. Ward. Fabulous. I love it when my friends turn me on to artists I've never heard before. He could be Cat Power's more talented brother: quietly intense, odd, playful, keenly aware of pop music's roots, but hopefully without the live demonstrations of erratic behavior.

Post-Game Report 4/10/07

2007-04-10T22:27:00.000-07:00

A win is a win is a win, except when it's pure luck: two runs, the difference between a win and a loss, thanks to an error, a lost fly ball, and a pitcher's brain cramp that made him throw to first instead of home on a comebacker. I'll take it.

I'm going to bed, but first, one more tidbit. I heard my first post-game wrap of the year and Krukow said that Bochy pitched an extra round of batting practice before the game. Feliz came up, and Bochy shouted out, "Situational hitting, no outs, man on second!" Feliz was expected to adjust his swing to move the runner over, "but he didn't know how," said Krukow.

So they showed him to use less body, throw the hands, and he finally got it.

He didn't know how to adjust his swing. In batting practice. After saying all winter he was working on going to the opposite field.

Player of the game: Kevin Correia. Two innings, four strikeouts. Gave up a homer, but it was a solo homer with a four-run lead and he was throwing strikes.

Test Your Mettle

2007-04-10T12:22:00.000-07:00

Four and eleven. Four and eleven. That's a winning percentage of .267, and it's where the 2000 Giants stood after two weeks. One and six is worse, percentage-wise, but at these early stages it's statistically insignificant.

Don't get me wrong, and heavens forfend, don't call me Pollyanna. This team is no match for the 2000 squad, with Bonds, Kent and Burks as its big three. (Burks only played in 122 games that year but OPS'ed 1.025.) Our current squadron may not challenge the modern-era record of fewest home runs hit - if you're allergic to clicking through, it's three -- but it's obvious that run-scoring will be a problem all year.

That leaves us with a test of mettle. What can you handle? You bitch and moan, but unless you turn back the clock to October 2003 and crush Brian Sabean's cell phone just before he calls Terry Ryan in Minnesota, we have to root for the team in front of us.

So: what do you want? A quick fix? Is this the team's last best chance in a long while to do some damage because it has Barry Bonds? Would you approve a trade that involves, say, Noah Lowry or Jonathan Sanchez, to bring back a short-term power source, say, Richie Sexson or Pat Burrell? If this team spent the entire year in the cellar because Brian Sabean refused to trade young pitchers for quick offensive fixes, would you stop going to games? Would you hesitate to re-up your season tickets? (For the record, I answer respectively "No, but I might skip a few" and "Definitely not.")

We often deride the team brass for their marketing ploys, but it's legitimate to ask how much fan support the team would lose by being thoroughly wretched for a full season. This is not St. Louis; we have entertainment options. We can go hiking on a brilliant blue Saturday instead of eating garlic fries and being assaulted by stoopid boombastic sound effects. Bruce Jenkins, bless his crusty old soul, was right about at least one thing this year: a slow start and the Giants fickle fan base will start to waver. It may have started already.

Fickle followers or not, at some point a team has to face the inevitable. With the handoff from Montana to Young and even for a short while to Jerry, er, Freddy, um, Jeff Garcia, we thought good times for the 49ers would never stop rolling. Oh, but they did. Except for 2001-2002 (known to geologists as The Mariucci Protrusion), the team has had losing years since 1998.

With another week as bad as this first one, it may be time for the Giants to embrace the abyss and hope it is neither deep nor wide. An abyss-lite, if you will. Abyssito. Abyssette. One truly stinkeroo year, and with luck next year the young pitchers are so damn good the Barryless team is back in contention. (Extremely questionable, but that's for another post.)

That may in fact be management's plan sotto voce. For marketing purposes, they would never come out and admit it. Yesterday I expressed hope that Sabean wouldn't hit the panic button, but the panic may be all ours because management might have already resigned itself to rebuild on the sly if the current configuration doesn't work.

Post-Game Report 4/9/07

2007-04-09T22:00:00.000-07:00

Why oh why oh why was Pedro Feliz hitting against Trevor Hoffman with the tying run at second in the bottom of the ninth? He has no special powers against Hoffman (lifetime 4 for 20), and Ryan Klesko was on the bench. Isn't this exactly the situation Klesko is here for? Get ready: games like tonight and Friday night's 2-1 loss to L.A. could be disturbingly frequent this year.

Player of the game: Matt Cain. Runner-up: Bengie Molina, with two doubles that might have been homers anywhere else (said David B. Flemming on the radio).

Not Exactly Lefty or Righty but Very Malo

2007-04-09T17:06:00.000-07:00

Catching up on back issues of the NY Times, I found last week's article about the college pitcher who throws with both arms. And his mom picks out nice ties for him, too. Will Carroll notes that Venditte has good mechanics from the right side, "lousy" from the left, which makes paying to see him all the more worth it. Alas, North Dakota State is about as close as his team gets to California in the next month.

One and Done?

2007-04-09T07:54:00.000-07:00

At least Armando Benitez hasn't blown a save!

Seriously, ladies and gentiles, there's a lot of doomsaying around these parts. One win, five losses, Dodger fans shoving brooms in our faces. Even the Safeway clerk in King City remarked, upon seeing my Giants hat yesterday, that things weren't looking up. When a Salinas Valley resident, who depends upon agriculture and is staring at the worst drought in 20 years and major bad juju from global warming, tells you your favorite team is in for a nasty summer, you either tell him he's got bigger things to worry about, or you pick up your presliced cheese, shrug your shoulders and nod.

One win the first week. How often has a team that eventually finishes with a winning record gone through a week with only one win? Probably every team, every year. Perhaps more than once. It happens. It also happens to really, really bad teams, too, so softly singing "Everybody hurts...sometimes" at this point only makes me feel more kinship with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

There is a real and present danger here. If the panic button starts blinking manically, Brian Sabean may strike a short-term deal to shore up the offense and the bullpen, thereby mortgaging even farther into the future to patch a badly cracked foundation. From here on out, he trades from weakness. The smell is everywhere; even the condors at the Pinnacles are nudging each other and thinking "Road Trip to S.F., why the hell not?" (I was there yesterday but did not see any.) He will not con anyone (not that he has in recent years, anyway), he will not get any one player who can boost this team's fortunes.

Improvement must come from within, and there were some nice silver linings this past week:

* Noah Lowry, Matt Cain and Matt Morris had strong starts. Lowry was especially encouraging.
* Ray Durham looked 10 years younger on defense and hit .350 / .458 / .450 in his first stint as a clean-up hitter.
* In his "get to know you" interview spot on the Jumbotron, Barry Zito's hair is more foolish than his pitching. That's hard to do.
* No Giant has gone on the DL.
* Um...
* King City: A Passion for Lettuce!

A week from now, fresh off a crazy improbable sweep of the Rockies in Colorado, we'll all be backslapping and bellyscratching and wondering how we got so down in the mouth after that first-week aberration. Two, three, and four weeks from now you'll be seeing headlines from me such as "Ryan Klesko: Big Game Hunter" and "More Ortiz, Please!"

They're already trademarked; don't even think about it.

He Got a Betatron, Man

2007-04-06T08:27:00.000-07:00

The morning after my wedding last September, we had an informal brunch with a nice noshy spread, people wandered in and out, no sit-down, no fancy set-ups, no cheesy hotel facilities, just sunshine, the warm smell of oak trees and pine, and lots of hot coffee. All very mellow. I was hungover, newlywed, barefoot in the late Sonoma summer and feeling fine. Cloud nine.

Then my Uncle Gary showed up. I like Uncle Gary. He's married to my dad's youngest sister, my Aunt Suzy, and as a Lefty Malito when I visited them in Reseda (no, they don't have a freeway runnin' through their yard), I could swim all day in their backyard pool. Lovely people, what?

But on that day, Sunday, Sept. 17, Uncle Gary showed up to my post-wedding brunch wearing a Dodgers hat. He extended his arms for a hug; I stood there stunned. That particular shade of blue, accentuated by the white stitching, felt like the toxic cloudless sky above Fontana searing my eyeballs.

Sure, could've been the hangover, but I didn't stop to ponder. I snarled, my hand uncurling from the fist position, and tried to snatch the offending material from his bald freckled head. He giggled, then giggled again nervously, then he retreated with alarm.

I stepped forward, determined to remove the cerulean evil from my vision, but my bride intervened. A raised finger, a sideways glance, a hand on an exquisitely curved hip: meet the new boss. I backed away, forcing disgust down my gullet like a dollop of lowfat chive-flavored cream cheese.

Ladies and gentlemen, señoras y señores, starting tonight the Los Angeles Dodgers are in town for three. I implore you, do not extend to them such tender mercies.

Post-Game Report 4/5/07

2007-04-05T22:42:00.000-07:00

Giants 5, Padres 3. Now I can shave. Did any of you have any superstitions going until the Giants won? Same T-shirt every day? Same underwear? Say it isn't so. If you were at tonight's game, what did you do in the 9th inning when Kline and Mando made things juicy? Cross your fingers? Make the sign of the yellowtail? (Sorry, if you don't know what it is, I can't tell you. What happens in La Famiglia Malo, stays in La Famiglia Malo.)

Player of da game (PLODAG): Matt Morris. Beard: bad season. No beard: good season! Superstition is that easy. Also kudos to Ray-Ray for knocking in two after Barry got the four-finger discount.

Before I go to bed, note with me that it was Fresno's opening day, and the Grizz won 9-4. PLODAG: Pat Misch, with five Ks in 2 innings of relief.

It's Not Giants News, But....

2007-04-05T11:39:00.000-07:00

Dice-K!

*******

P.M. UPDATE: It's from a story written by Rich Draper's understudy, but the following sentence, from Bruce Bochy regarding the home run Taschner gave up to Gonzalez, is the quote of the day for its simple sanity: "He'll learn from it. He's been throwing well, he just let that one pitch get away from him."

I like that it's OK that young players have room to learn on this team. This is a rebuilding year disguised as a pennant push. Perhaps I'm reading way too much into it, but Bochy's quote seems to acknowledge the dual nature of the season. I also like the fact that Bochy is willing to let relievers go multiple innings, let alone multiple batters. Hennessey last night was on his way to completing a second full inning when M. Giles grounded a single up the middle. Once that happened, bringing in Taschner to face B. Giles and Gonzalez was the right move, not just for the lefty-lefty matchups but because Taschner's move would likely keep M. Giles closer to the bag at first.

You know what the "0" in 0-2 stands for, my friends? 0ptimistic. If I weren't going off the grid this weekend, I'd even be looking forward to Russ Ortiz on Saturday.

Post-Game Report

2007-04-04T22:39:00.000-07:00

Just back from the yard. I'm ofer two so far. Good thing I don't have more tix until April 20th or so. Giants lost but looked a hell of a lot better doing so. Lots of hard-hit balls that went right at San Diegans; Cain dominated except for two bad pitches.

Everything I want to say Grant says quite well here; I'll only add that Rich Aurilia looked great at the plate, laying off Chris Young's high fastballs (which Bochy in the pre-game show warned about; because Young is really tall, his 90-MPH high heat is as effective as a 93-94 MPH pitch).

And a question for you TV watchers: from the bleachers, the Taschner pitch that Gonzalez hit half way to Union City looked like a fastball above the strike zone, i.e., not a bad pitch necessarily. Was it? Or did The Special Agent groove it?

Big Tall Man

2007-04-04T09:21:00.000-07:00

Tonight's starting pitcher for San Diego, Chris Young, is 6'10", 260 pounds. He big. I forgot about his height over the winter, as I had more important things to think about, and I also forgot just how good he was last year:

179 IP / 134 H / 69 BB / 164 K / 28 HR / 3.46 ERA /

Batters hit .206 against him and got on base less than 30% of the time. He good.

One more year like that, and the trade that brought Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Termell Sledge from Texas for Adam Eaton and Aki Otsuka will be the steal of the decade, except for...uh, never mind.

That Gonzalez trade chaps a lot of hide among Giants fans. He's just the thing the team has needed for years: a young gifted first baseman with increasing power. He's not yet 25, and he's already had a season to rival J.T. Snow's career years. Returns on the Niekro investment have fared about as well as a sub-prime mortgage, the Giants being the mortgage holder desperately trying to squeeze any type of remaining value from it, while the mortgage itself, i.e. Niekro...

Stop this metaphor. I want to get off.

Could the Giants have traded for Adrian Gonzalez? In his minor league career he was trade bait dangled by not one but two teams. Seems they could have put together a little something for him. Hindsight being what is, I say it's better to look for the next Adrian Gonzalez, because Waiting For Travis (Ishikawa) is the same endless one-act play we just sat through as Niekro progressed through the system.

I cain't wait for tonight. Cain you?

Opening Dazed

2007-04-03T17:18:00.000-07:00

Just back from the yard, where nothing went right. The highlight was Barry Bonds's stolen base in the first inning.

Prepare yourself for all manner of pronouncements from tomorrow's columnists about the symbolism of today's game. So much more than one loss. A peek at a long, grim summer. The Giant karmic chickens are coming home to roost.

Indeed, Zito was hittable, the Giants' lineup, lackluster, and the bullpen, uglier than Julian Tavarez with a comb-over. If you want to see today's game as a microcosm, it certainly lent itself to all our worst preconceived notions heading into the season.

I'm not going to extrapolate too much. Bottom line is Jake Peavy was very very on, and there's no shame in looking feeble against him. Mark it down 0-1 and move on to Matt Cain tomorrow night. But it's worth noting a few things:

* The turning point of the game came in the fourth inning, Padres up 2-0. It was obvious Peavy had his A-game, so another run would likely be the nail in the coffin. With Bard on first and a run already in, Zito had Greene down two strikes but couldn't put him away. After a few foul balls, Greene grounded to Feliz, who bobbled what was a likely double-play grounder. Next batter, Kouzmanoff, also down two strikes. Again, Zito couldn't put him away. Finally, he singled to left on a ball that Bonds perhaps should have caught. No doubt, Zito was let down by his defense. But a strikeout pitcher doesn't need as much luck (or defensive support). Zito, who didn't top 86 MPH, did not look like he could get a strikeout when he needed. The Padres looked very comfortable at the plate. (Side note: the drunk guy behind me leaned over after Zito came out and said, "Dude, he didn't even throw a fastball today!" I said, "84 miles an hour is his fastball." "Dude," said the dude, "I didn't realize that." I knew it coming in, but seeing it in person is rather sobering. Well, not literally for the guy behind me, but you get my point. My team just paid $126 million for a 28-year-old Jamie Moyer.)

* Every reliever gave up loud hits. Kevin Correia, shame on you for grooving an 0-2 fastball to Jose Cruz, a terrible off-speed hitter hitting from his weak side. Jonathan Sanchez: no breaking ball to speak of and a changeup that tended to hang out around belt-high. Vinny Chulk: a few good pitches then just as he nearly wriggles out of trouble, he makes a couple mistakes.

* Pedro Feliz, Lance Niekro: No clue against Peavy. Against tough right-handers, Feliz needs to sit, Aurilia slide to third, and Klesko play first. It's not rocket science.

Just remember, the 2000 Giants started the year 4-and-11, and that year turned into magic for a short sweet spell, especially when J.T. hit that home run in the playoffs off...uh...never mind.

***

LATE NIGHT UPDATE: How bad was today's game? Independently of each other, both Grant and I came up with former-Giants-of-attractiveness metaphors. Julian Tavarez with a comb-over. Willie McGee in a diaper. No doubt you're all on the edge of your seats to see how we paint the picture of the upcoming 13-2 loss to the Nationals on a cold August Tuesday night.

NOW LISTENING TO: Lots of Soweto, courtesy of FMFM, the pirate signal at the end of the continent. No wonder Paul Simon got hooked. Mahlathini, the Lion of Soweto (or if you prefer, the Howlin' Wolf of South Africa) and the Mahotella Queens are top of the pops for me right now.

25 Men and a Seal

2007-04-02T08:19:00.000-07:00

Lance Niekro's in. Jason Ellison's off to Seattle. Sweeney is on the disabled list, postponing a decision on his fate.

A couple thoughts:

* Ellison was traded for minor-league pitcher Travis Blackley, who used to be a top prospect. As a 20-year-old he threw 162 innings in double-A, striking out 144, walking 62, and giving up 125 hits.

Then he blew out his shoulder and missed all of 2005. He returned last year and pitched 150 innings, mostly in AA. His numbers weren't nearly as dominant as before the injury, but he's only 24, and as we all know from our experience with Joe Nathan, sometimes it takes more than a year for a pitcher to return to previous form. I haven't seen Blackley pitch, but on its face this seems like an excellent move. Ellison is nearly 30 and will never be more than a backup outfielder. Blackley is a big, young left-handed starter who may still have recovery upside.

* Ellison goes home to play with his favorite team and to play alongside Willie Bloomquist, his best friend from high school. Story here.

* Niekro is insurance in case Aurilia re-sproings his groin, but otherwise he's a big lunky pinch-hitter against lefties as the roster is currently configured. How else might the Giants use him? Reports Hank Schulman of the Chron: Niekro forced the team's hand by hitting .340 this spring. Although he seems to be buried on the depth chart behind Rich Aurilia and Klesko, Sabean and Bochy said there might be games against left-handed pitchers in which Pedro Feliz plays left field, Aurilia moves to third and Niekro starts at first.

* Kevin Frandsen is actually being considered as an option in the outfield. He's becoming a veritable Joe McEwing. Let's hope his career batting line looks better than Little Mac.

* The bullpen: Three lefties! ¡Tremendo! Best-case scenario is Jack Taschner develops into a lefty killer and makes Steve Kline expendable by mid-year. Jonathan Sanchez in short relief is not surprising, but it must be confusing for the kid, who keeps hearing different stories from the Giants.

As long as his arm stays healthy, I like the idea of keeping him in the bullpen. He doesn't yet have the stuff to be a major-league starter. So the Giants basically had two choices: send him back to Fresno to refine his control and off-speed stuff while dominating AAA hitters, or keep him up and let him learn his craft in lower-pressure situations. Watch his outings carefully for signs of progress. He got by last year on his unfamiliarity, his funky delivery, and the movement on his fastball. The league will know more about him this time around.

* I'll be at the yard Tuesday and Wednesday wearing the Mays Field T-shirts. Come by the 1-3-8 (Row 3) and say hi.

Cuts

2007-03-31T19:05:00.000-07:00

Just announced after today's game:

Down to Fresno are Brian Wilson, Scott Munter. Wow, Sabean wasn't messing around with the harsh assessment on the radio.

To minor-league camp go Tomas De La Rosa, Sun-Woo Kim, Scott Atchinson.

That leaves a bullpen of Benitez, Kline, Correia, Chulk, Sanchez, Hennessey, and Special Agent Jack Taschner and a bench of Frandsen, Klesko, Linden, Alfonzo, Sweeney, Niekro and Ellison. If the bullpen stays at seven, which seems likely, two of the benchers gotta go. Last-minute thought: with Aurilia able to back up all the infield positions and Frandsen with options remaining, might the kid go down to Fresno to start every day?

Brian's Song (and Dance)

2007-03-29T22:05:00.000-07:00

The old softshoe is back, Mr. Talkin' Much and Sayin' Little, just give 'em the old razz-ull dazz-ull but in that monotone New England way, though I should say that as I caught the season's first "Brian Sabean Show" on KNBR this afternoon I thought he was a bit more forthcoming than usual. Just keep in mind Billy Beane's timeless assessment of Sabes: like a shark with its fin just under the water, not to mention the "master of the dry hump." What, you haven't read Moneyball? Get thee to a bookery!

Here's a synopsis of today's radio spot:

* Benitez's name has "been out there" as a trade possibility, but the offers weren't enough, and the bullpen situation forces the Giants to be "pragmatic." In other words, ain't no one else to do the job. Certainly not Brian Wilson because...

* Wilson has fallen "flat on his face" this spring. Harsh words from Sabes. Not pleased at all with Wilson's spring performance. He may not make the team.

* It's likely Jonathan Sanchez will start the year in the bullpen, but Sabes hasn't been happy with Sanchez either. His mechanics are off, he's been pitching with a fastball only...sounds like Sanchez hasn't progressed much from the end of last year.

* Sabes didn't dispute the assertion that his job is "on the line" this year. He said "the farther away you get from the World Series," the more the pressure, and that he's OK with it. He didn't raise his voice, get defensive or in any other way seem put out by the question. Very smooth.

* Jason Ellison is what the team needs and has "the inside track" to make the team, although he didn't specifically say Ellison was on the squad. Sabes thinks both Niekro and Ellison would get claimed on waivers, and he'd hate to lose either of them with nothing to show. Sweeney is not out of the mix, but about the best Sabean could muster in Sweeney's defense is that he's a proven veteran -- "we know what he brings to the table." Something like that.

* Tim Lincecum will definitely be a starter in Fresno. Sabes sounded extremely reluctant to convert him to a closer if that need becomes apparent. He's not sure Lincecum could take the pounding a closer's body takes, though he also acknowledged the kid has a "rubber arm." Whatever the case, Sabes said he's "on the fast track." He just needs to work on his command.

* Pedro Feliz has progressed more from last year than any Giants hitter. He widened his stance and is taking balls to right field. He's also shortening up with two strikes. [Ed. note: Riiiiiight.]

* Linden is playing with a lot of confidence and, as a switch hitter with power, has been a late bloomer. Sabes says he'll get 300 at-bats easily and now that he's playing a decent centerfield could get 4 to 5 starts a week. Sounds like Linden is an option to start in center on days Roberts sits against lefties.

* Everything has to be decided after Saturday's game; opening day rosters are due to MLB Sunday at noon. Five more days...Five more days...

No Ice for the Dice

2007-03-28T22:09:00.000-07:00

I'm on assignment Thursday and Friday with little time to write, so you'll have to amuse yourselves elsewhere. I recommend here. And here. And going against my initial instincts, here. If you don't vote for me, I'll get a dolphin tattoo on my ankle and move to MySpace.

Congratulations to Russ Ortiz, Mr. Fifth Starter. Remember, Russ, the leash is short. Starting eating donuts again, and [draws finger across throat in menacing motion]. But garlic fries are another matter, starting this year. I have never seen a word on a Web page drip with more sarcasm than the word "delicacy" in that story.

Speaking of stories, I was in a waiting room today and saw the Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue. Tom Verducci's cover story on Daisuke "Dice-K" Matsuzaka is excellent: well-written, well-reported, and counter-intuitive. Verducci makes a compelling argument that Matsuzaka, if successful, could make major-league teams rethink the way they coddle pitchers, even though he's already being forced to adjust to American workout regimes. We'll see if he can go a whole season without icing his arm.

It may not be "Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu," but it's as well-crafted a piece of sportswriting as you'll find these days in a mainstream sports publication.

Devil Spawn

2007-03-28T13:32:00.000-07:00

If luck and health and planets and tarot cards all line up in the Giants' favor this year, yes, they could make the playoffs and then, as Joaquin Andujar liked to say, youneverknow.

More realistically, though, this is a rebuilding year in which the pitching staff continues its rejuvenation with the emergence of Jonathan Sanchez, maybe Tim Lincecum, and perhaps a young hotshot reliever or two (Brian Wilson, Billy Sadler).

But the renewal is all on the pitching side. The hitters won't experience much youth movement unless Todd Linden and Kevin Frandsen are forced into starting roles because of injuries. For the next few years, in fact, the only way a youth movement among Giant hitters will happen is through trade, which brings me to the point of today's post.

The Giants have pitching. The Giants need young hitters. What team out there is a mirror image with an excess of young hitters and zero pitching? The Devil Rays.

At some point, probably this year, the Rays will have five legitimate players in three outfield positions: Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton (reportedly being groomed to switch from infield to outfield), and if he can get his head screwed on right, Elijah Dukes. Upton came up as a SS/3B type, but the Rays have excellent players, top-ten national prospects, in fact, rapidly approaching the bigs at those positions. Upton's shoddy infield D makes him a candidate to move. They have positional talent to spare.

And the Rays are so thin in pitching behind Scott Kazmir, they could be tempted to trade a blue-chip hitter for a blue-chip pitcher if they feel the team can make a competitive leap forward this year. Jonathan Sanchez for Rocco Baldelli? Baldelli's not perfect, between his injury problems and his low-OBP style. But Sanchez is no sure thing, either. He may never develop a steady third pitch, forcing him to be a reliever. That diminishes his value. If you were Brian Sabean you would make this trade expecting Baldelli's offensive game to mature in the next couple years while he plays above-average center field.

A trade with real cojones would be Matt Cain for Delmon Young, a future ace for a future perennial All-Star. Would it actually be equitable? BP's PECOTA system sees Cain contributing between three and four wins per year to his team for the next five years; it sees Young adding between four and five wins a year. Just a thought.

Spring Stats Are Fun

2007-03-27T09:15:00.000-07:00

Player A this spring:

.359 BA / .405 OBP / .692 SLG / 3 HR / 39 ABs

Player B this spring:

.262 BA / .324 OBP / .415 SLG / 1 HR / 65 ABs

Both are right-handed hitting first basemen. One of them is likely to make the Giants' opening day roster, according to this story. The other one is Albert Pujols.

Sweeney on Waivers?

2007-03-26T09:34:00.000-07:00

According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, the Giants have placed Mark Sweeney on waivers. If spring rules follow regular-season rules, Sweeney is now exposed to all major-league teams. If none claim him, the Giants either keep him or release him outright into free agency and remain responsible for his '07 pay, minus the league minimum.

I haven't seen this news elsewhere. Waivers are not a publicly disclosed action, so let's take it with a grain of salt until we get confirmation.

Remember, if Sweeney is claimed, the Giants can pull him off the waiver wire. They don't have to let him go. They can also try to work a trade with the claiming team. It seems to me a team loses maneuverability when it places a player on waivers. Any strategical thoughts on why the Giants would do this?

***

P.M. UPDATE: Whaddya know? Bruce Jenkins has won five (5) awards from the U.S. Tennis Writers Association. That's totally awesome. Five! Congratulations, and may he also win one soon for unleashing full-blown baseball analysis. Because when Bruce lets loose, he gives a new meaning to analysis. He analyzes and analyzes, then he analyzes some more: Socks, game faces, batting average, gut feelings and dirty uniforms. They all go in the analysis blender and come out like one big nutritious smoothie of old-fashioned baseball common sense with a cheap bourbon chaser from one of those dives where sportswriters used to hang out but can't anymore because of all the damn yuppies. I hear there's a video game in the works, Bruce Jenkins: Analysis Unleashed III. Game, set, match...to Bruce Jenkins, ladies and gentlemen.

Speaking of curious, open-minded newspaper columnists, check this out. Unbelievable. Wait til guys like Jenkins and Shaughnessy find out about things like hybrid cars and microwaves. They're really going to -- how would people of their generation say it? -- freak out, man!

One last thing: here's today's Giant lineup. Might this also be the opening day lineup?

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
LF Bonds
2B Durham
1B Klesko
3B Feliz
C Molina
RF Winn

The Prodigal Fopp

2007-03-23T09:15:00.000-07:00

After a year and a half wandering through the sodden woods of the Pacific Northwest, straining to hear the call of the marbeled murrelet, his once-powerful right arm slowly regaining strength after.....the accident....the prodigal son has returned.

An insignificant contract, a minor-league assignment, a few kind words, o! such little fanfare for the once-golden boy, Jesse Foppert. Released by the Mariners after a dismal spring showing, Bay Area native Foppert will report to Fresno to see if he can regain the mojo that brought him to the majors as a 23-year-old.

He was part of the law firm of Foppert, Williams and Ainsworth LLC that rose quickly through the minors and was expected to form the core of the Giant starting rotation through most of this decade. Instead, the trio, like another famous pitching trio -- the Mets' phenoms Wilson, Isringhausen and Pulsipher -- succumbed early on to injury, ineffectiveness, and overblown expectations.

Of those Mets, you should recognize at least one name. Jason Isringhausen retooled his career as a premium closer. Paul Wilson has bounced around as a mediocre starter for years, with a run of six straight years in the bigs with Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Bill Pulsipher has pitched in a total of 106 major league games over a 14-year career. He was most recently spotted in the uniform of the Long Island Ducks.

The former Giants' prospects will be lucky if, in ten years, they can look back on the same amount of "success" as the Mets ex-wunderkinds. Cruel, this game.

Let's wish the best for Foppert, who joins another ex-Giant and Bay Area native, Tyler Walker, trying to return from Tommy John surgery with his hometown team. The best not just for him; if he can work his way back into shape, the Giants could certainly use his arm in the bullpen. (Same goes for Walker, who won't be ready until mid-season at the earliest.)

A side note: Say what you want about Randy Winn, but that trade was one of the few check-marks on Sabean's side of the ledger in recent years. The Giants got Winn and gave up Foppert and Torrealba, who despite many observers' beliefs (including mine), has never proven adequate as a starting catcher.

Speaking of trades, you know which team matches up the best with the Giants as potential trade partners? It ain't the Dodgers. More on this over the weekend, or next week.

***

P.M. UPDATE: SI.com has an interview with Curt Schilling, who recently launched his own blog, 38 Pitches. It's a fascinating discussion with a player who's hyperaware of his relationship with the rest of the world. Here's a gem of an exchange:

SI.com: Do you think that Internet-based baseball analysts and writers should be available for BBWAA awards and Hall of Fame voting?

Schilling: Oh, it'll come full-circle at some point. Why wouldn't it? They already have a much larger impact than the Murray Chass' of the world would like to believe. I mean, you've got guys who are putting out what I know to be legitimately valuable statistical information and its relevance to a game in a win or a loss at Baseball Prospectus. Then you have guys that I'm not too fond of, like Murray Chass, who says, "What is VORP and who cares?" It was a stupid article. The only thing it did was show his ignorance to me in modern day baseball. Because those numbers do matter, those numbers do have value. Do they have value to me in getting a player out? No. But I would tell you that there are a lot of front offices that use those numbers for a lot of important decision making.

Caption Contest

2007-03-22T14:40:00.000-07:00

Good gosh a'mighty, these are a few of my favorite things: Flanderin' mayors, supermarket checkout boys, solar power, and ugly-ass ties. Have at it.

Baggarly, Part 3

2007-03-21T09:29:00.000-07:00

We finish up the Q&A today with Merc beat writer Andy Baggarly by taking on a few big issues: media responsibility, Barry Bonds's image, Cal Ripken's double standard, and Pete Rose's gambling problem. Big thanks to Andy for his participation. If you haven't read them, parts one and two are below. You'll have to scroll down. For some reason my permalinks aren't working.

Q: We recently learned that a BALCO defense attorney leaked the now-infamous grand jury testimony to the Chronicle, then went to a judge and said the resulting stories made it impossible for his client to get a fair trial. Was it wrong to publish it? Should a reporter consider his source's motivations before publishing sensitive information?

A: You'll understand if my response is a bit evasive. Really, there are no easy answers here. I wouldn't want to venture an opinion because I don't know the manner in which the information was obtained. Generally speaking, you always have to consider a source's motivations when publishing non-attributed material. Sometimes it's the only way to get information out there, but people should be accountable for the things they say. In these cases, you have to weigh the value of the information. It's never an easy call. That's why we have assignment editors, sports editors, managing editors, etc. No ethical decision gets made without consultation on several levels.

Q: Has Bonds gotten a raw deal from the media?

A: In many respects, yes. A resounding yes. I'm no Bonds apologist; in many, many, many ways, he's made his own bed. And if you have strong negative opinions about steroid use, as most of the country apparently does, you're not cheering for Bonds to break the home run record. Everyone is entitled to their opinion on that.

But there's a lot of misinformation about Bonds out there, especially from out-of-market columnists. As a brief aside, having written columns myself, I can tell you it's not an easy job. You're putting yourself out there, often commenting on things that you can't possibly know authoritatively. My columnists are great about soliciting my insight, and I try to give them as much information as possible. But a week of writing columns is kind of like starting a big league game. You've got four at-bats, and not every one is going to be a hit. You've heard of players who "give away at-bats," right? Same can be true for some columnists. Let's say you work for someplace like the Orlando Sentinel. You're looking for a fourth issue to write about, maybe the local college team was eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, the Magic is out of town, and voila! There's Bonds. Everybody hates Bonds, right? Eight-hundred easy words right there. Mention the giant recliner. Mention flaxseed oil. Mention how he doesn't stretch with the team. Write a witticism about his head size. Morally grandstand. ENDIT. [Ed. note: "Endit" is a reporter's shorthand that indicates to an editor where the story copy ends.]

Problem is, Bonds doesn't have the recliner anymore! He hasn't in two years. The Bonds recliner flap is the biggest overblown story in recent baseball history. Go in any clubhouse and you'll see a veteran with a recliner. When Doug Jones was with the Cubs, his teammates gave him one as a joke. When he left, and for years afterward, the oldest player on the team inherited it.

Another problem: Bonds isn't the only player who skips stretching. A few years ago, there was a guy who stretched by himself, had his own PR team, stayed in a different hotel from the rest of the team and got special treatment from team ownership. His name was Cal Ripken, Jr. That's the stock answer I give whenever anyone asks about a Bonds double-standard. Is it because he's African-American? Because he's surly? Maybe a little of everything, but race is an issue on some level. If you don't believe that some semblance of institutional racism exists in America, you're blind or stupid or both.

I have to interject a little something here: while finishing this Q&A, I overheard two scouts having a conversation over my shoulder criticizing Lou Brock's comments that baseball needs to do more to get African-Americans involved in the game. They thought it was a crock of shit. I think one guy's exact quote was, "Why make them play if they don't want to? Basketball is easier. All you have to do is jump. Baseball takes work."

I got so angry I started shaking. Against my better judgment, I even brushed past them and made a little comment. And some people think we're a color-blind nation...

Back to the answer. One other piece of misinformation that you see all the time in the boilerplate of Bonds stories: he admitted in his grand jury testimony that he unknowingly used steroids. Wrong! He admitted to taking what he was told was flaxseed oil and arthritis balm. When asked if he thought they were steroids, he testified that Greg Anderson was his friend and he believed the substances were what Greg represented them to be. He never said that yes, they were definitely (or probably) steroids. Now, is his explanation plausible? Or laughable? I don't think you'll find many people who believe him. But to misrepresent what he told the grand jury is a mistake the media should take great care not to make, and it's made routinely.

Q: Given the latest revelations from Pete Rose (he recently admitted he's been lying for years about the extent of his betting on baseball), does he deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? Do you see a difference between Rose and Bonds?

A: This is my 10th year covering MLB, so I'll get my first Hall vote this winter. It's a privilege that I'll cherish and take very seriously. I'll just say this: The Hall of Fame is full of people who did bad things. Cap Anson probably kept the game from being integrated for 30 years before Jackie Robinson came along. The Georgia Peach was no peach. I think anyone who made an impact on the game, even if it wasn't 100 percent positive, should be in. In some ways, my definition of a Hall of Famer is a bit broader than just the statistical debates. It includes cultural considerations. (I think Fernando Valenzuela is more deserving of the Hall than Don Sutton, for example.)

One thing I definitely believe is that the Hall shouldn't be a vehicle for punishment, as it's become with Rose. I won't be able to change that with my ballot, since he's not on it. As for the "steroid guys," I'm really torn. Thankfully I have a few months before I have to make a decision on McGwire, and a few years before Palmeiro, Bonds, etc. are on the ballot. My gut on Bonds is that he's in, because he was a Hall of Famer before the era in which he's suspected of using performance enhancers.

Q: Excluding players and coaches, who's the biggest unsung hero in the Giants organization?

A: Gotta be longtime clubhouse manager Mike Murphy. A major league clubhouse is a very political place, and somehow Murph manages to treat everyone the same. He's an advocate for everyone all the time. His favorite saying is "I don't bother nobody." The other day I saw Yorvit Torrealba on the field. The first thing he said, after hello, was "Where's Murph?" That's pretty typical when former Giants come around.

Clubhouse staff work the most insane hours of anyone in baseball. It's not uncommon to work 18-hour days during the year. Lots of ballparks have little rooms with cots because the clubbies aren't done scrubbing shoes until after midnight then have to be at the park at 6 a.m. getting ready for the next day.

Q: If you weren't covering baseball, what would you be doing?

A: Writing guidebooks for Lonely Planet, or maybe teaching English someplace abroad. Something that involves writing and travel, seeing new places. I'm constantly on the move during a baseball season, but I pine for destinations more exotic than Cincinnati and Milwaukee. If the Giants open next season in Japan or Europe, I'll be the happiest guy of all.

Q: What happened to Rich Draper? Life isn't the same without his prose.

A: Rich is happily entering the golden years of retirement. We always bugged him to join us for drinks or dinner on the road, but he eluded us every time. We finally roped him a few weeks ago to fete him and give him a proper sendoff. Rich definitely has his own unique writing voice. (The Marquis Grissom feature, written Dashiell Hammett-style, was my personal fave.) Hopefully he'll continue to drop in from time to time.

A Few Bits of Tid

2007-03-20T12:41:00.000-07:00

* One question the Giants must answer is whether to start the season with 11 pitchers or 12. The latter seems more likely, what with only two days off in April. Food for thought, however: the LA Times reports the Dodgers will open with 11 pitchers, and they have three days off. What's the big diff? It may come down to confidence in the starters' ability to go deep into games right out of the gate. So far, no Giant starter has gone five innings in a spring game.

* Unless Russ Ortiz goes splat in the next two weeks, he's the fifth starter.

* If you're following the Armando Benitez trade rumors, you've probably heard the name Yusmeiro Petit. A thumbnail profile: A Venezuelan in the Mets organization, Petit baffled scouts by dominating hitters with average stuff and landed on many top-100 prospect lists in 2003-2004. He was traded to Florida in 2005 as part of the Carlos Delgado trade and hasn't fared well since, either at AAA or in a short 26-inning stint last year with the Marlins. Hitters at the highest levels seem to have caught up to his stuff, but he turned 22 in November and has time to make adjustments. He's not an elite prospect anymore, but if the Giants land him for Benitez, it would be significant.

* Bob Eucker has a stalker.

* Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus thinks Freddie got a raw deal:

Frederick Lewis was demoted by the Giants. This decision, while not surprising, reflects choosing yet another dance with Todd Linden instead of a player who can run, who plays defense, and who gets on base at a better clip. Maybe Linden, who reached Triple-A back in 2002, really has turned the corner. The Giants would still be better off with a fourth outfielder who can cover for the three old guys and both hit and run for Bengie Molina. Jason Ellison will be the fourth outfielder, and he’s basically an inferior version of Lewis. Spring performance doesn’t change that. Lewis should be in the majors.

That's confusing. If Sheehan thinks Ellison will be the fourth outfielder, what is Linden? The third-and-a-half outfielder? Ellison is no lock to make the team. With his second-half work last year, Linden has indeed earned a chance to go north in April. Besides, he's out of options, and Lewis isn't. Sloppy work, Joe.

Nor a Lender Be

2007-03-19T13:43:00.000-07:00

The Rangers are changing the name of their ballpark from "Ameriquest Field" (Ameriquest is a mortgage company) to yet another corporate moniker. Take a guess -- Pfizer Pfield? Halliburton Park? ExxonMobil Greens?

The answer is their own: "Rangers Ballpark in Arlington." It's the first case I can remember from this callow age of ubiquitous corporate sponsorship that a stadium has been renamed in the right direction. Will it stay that way, or is this a temporary switch to disassociate the team from a rather, shall we say, subprime partner?

Keep hope alive!

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Now listening to Sonic Youth live last summer at the Roseland Theatre. Comes with Yngwie Malmsteen shout-out at no extra charge. (It's in the Intro.)

Perhaps Because I Am a Libra...

2007-03-19T09:03:00.001-07:00

...I cannot kick a man when he's down, not for very long at least, unless his name is Neifi, and even then, come on, he is one of the top 1,000 or so baseball players in the world, let's give the guy a bit of a break especially now that he's not on our team. I'm even holding out a scintilla of hope that Pedro Feliz has learned to hit the ball to right field and not swing at the shadows of passing jumbo jets. Heck, I even sent Russ Davis a Chanukah card.

Where was I? Oh yes. Libra, am I. Fair. Balanced. Just.

So when one of my favorite media whipping boys, Bruce Jenkins, whom I have targeted with jokes -- completely unsubstantiated, mind you -- about the old silver flask tucked into his battered gray Chronicle-issue newsroom desk drawer and his disturbing love for men who wear their socks high, when Bruce gets something right, I give props.

Mad, major props. Pra-shizzle-ops, for all you young urban readers out there.

Reading his column in today's Chron, "Giants Need Fast Start," I found myself nodding, more or less, in agreement. Let's try to figure out why:

In a somewhat cruel twist of fate, just as the Giants start to build a respectable young pitching staff, the entire division is on a significant upswing.

Very true. Concisely said. An excellent nut graph, Sir Jenks.

Get out of the gate quickly -- say, 10 wins in the first 15 games -- and the Giants can re-establish a foundation of trust among their fans. If they fall substantially behind in the NL West, you won't find many people feeling good about the season or, more importantly, the future.

The 10-of-15-or-else scenario may be a bit hyperbolic, but I get the general point. This is more about marketing the team the rest of the year. A slow start may turn off the casual fan. This is generally true most years, and it's certainly true that when a team falls way behind, people tend to be pessimistic, but contrary to the standards that columnists generally hold dear, being obvious isn't as bad as being wrong.

Outside of his Cy Young season in 2002 (23-5, 2.75), Zito has never been Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux. He has been a clever, highly competent starter who more than holds up his end.

Again one could say obvious, except that a lot of people (not me, not you, but a lot of people) actually think Zito deserves such lofty comparisons. Good on ya, Bruce, for bursting their bubble.

To expect him to win 25 games, stifling the Mets or Cardinals with two-hit shutouts, simply isn't realistic.

I'd prefer a more sophisticated statistical breakdown, say, "To expect him to regain his dominant strikeout ratio while cutting down on walks, etc etc," but I'll take what I can get. Wins are generally meaningless, but to win 25 in a season, you either have to be the luckiest guy on earth or very very good.

Across the bay, the A's have lost so many great players due to budget constraints or injuries, it boggles the mind -- and they always survive. A single injury -- say, Zito, Cain or even Bonds -- could instantly destroy the Giants' season.

Well, more Bonds than anyone else. But yes, you're right, and without making a "thirtysomething" joke. This is perhaps the crux, the crunchy nugget, the Achilles heel of the Giants season. One injury, and blam. Perhaps no team is as dependent on "health luck" as the Giants.

Take an honest look at the NL West and try to find a category where the Giants have a clear-cut edge. It certainly isn't youth, farm system, speed, starting pitching, run production, defense or the bullpen.

It certainly isn't. Thank you, Bruce, for not including gamefaces or mental toughness or clubhouse chemistry or veteran savvy in that list.

Bonds, believe it or not, is the only man in the division with a full-fledged power reputation. The No. 2 guy would be Jeff Kent, followed by Todd Helton, and then it's pretty much over.

Hmm. Todd Helton, not full-fledged in the power department? His home run totals have dropped the last two years at least in part due to injury, but ahem, so have Barry Bonds's. Averaging 35 HRs a year for seven years seems mighty fledged to me. And did Bruce snooze through the Rockies games last year? I wouldn't blame him, but, hello? Matt Holliday? Garrett Atkins? These names ring a bell?

Colorado's strength won't ever be pitching, not in that ballpark...

Maybe, maybe not, but it would be nice if he acknowledged that the Rockies have a quietly effective closer in Brian Fuentes and their starters were surprisingly good last year. Also scoring at Coors Field, though still above league average, was the lowest last year that it's been all decade.

...But the Rockies are drawing heavy praise from some longtime Denver skeptics, largely due to Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Troy Tulowitzki and the other solid young hitting talents in camp.

Holliday isn't just a guy "in camp" -- he actually got some MVP votes last year. Again, I quibble.

Given that the Giants' offense contains only two legitimate cornerstones -- Roberts' speed and Bonds' power -- a few surprises need to occur. Ray Durham has to stay healthy all season. Pedro Feliz needs to develop more plate discipline and wear his socks higher.

OK, you got me, I added that last bit about the socks. I couldn't resist. I get so antsy when Jenkins makes so many legitimate points in a row.

The Giants would also appear to be at a severe disadvantage in short relief, at least when measured against the Dodgers' Takashi Saito and the Padres' Trevor Hoffman (with all-world setup).

Yup.

But there is hope for scrappy Brian Wilson, who really wants to take a stranglehold on the thing, and perhaps even Tim Lincecum, whose entire package screams "closer," at least for this year.

I won't argue for now with the idea of Wilson as closer, or even Lincecum, but I object to the image of Lincecum's package screaming "closer."

Jenkins hasn't paid much attention to the Rockies, and he ends by circling back to the obvious: start fast or people won't support the team as much. At least his point runs counter to the Giants' hand-waving and the blatant PR-ness of the Zito overspend. A little subversive sand in the vaseline, sprinkled with some surprisingly matter-of-fact assessment of the strength of the N.L. West: keep up the decent work, Bruce.

The Existential Dread of the Daily Blogger

2007-03-16T12:42:00.000-07:00

Over at McCovey Chronicles, Grant encapsulates the boredom of spring training, or as Sartre once wrote, l'inexprimable ennui de l'entrainement du printemps, with this post. As the famous rap song says, "Self-deconstruction, you're headed for self-deconstruction."

No less existential is my interview with Merc beat writer Andy Baggarly. Here's part 2.

Q: If you retired tomorrow from sports reporting, which players would you invite to dinner just to hang out and talk about anything other than baseball?

A: I'd have to start with Omar Vizquel. Maybe we could go to a museum before dinner. I'd love to hear his comments on all the pieces. Plus I've been to his house (for a story about his artwork). I guess it's only fair I invite him to mine.

Ed. note: Unless you read Baggarly's story in print, you missed these photos from Vizquel's house:

Q: Does Brian Sabean read blogs? Can I send him coded messages? What about the other executives?

A: Ha! Somehow I doubt it. Bloggers are by definition part of the Lunatic Fringe, right? Seriously though, the Giants probably obsess more about fan opinion than most organizations. The front office often takes the temperature of fans, but mostly it's the season ticket holders they poll. Makes sense -- they're chipping in about $50,000 more per year than the average blogger (if you count the seat license).

There's a fair amount of misinformed comments on some of the blogs, but by most accounts I'm very impressed with the fans that post on the sites. Most are curious, know baseball and are hilarious to read. (Will someone get E to switch to decaf?) And wow, do they want details. Contract stuff, minor league stuff, every kind of statistical analysis, it's amazing. I think the biggest impact bloggers can have is their grassroots appeal. If you see 5,000 fans wearing Benitez Nattoware at a game, it's going to get noticed. Same with the Mays Field campaign.

Q: When we hear of a trade rumor in the paper, how often is it something concrete, with real interest on both sides, and how often is it just an idea someone is floating to see what happens? Who floats them, and why?

A: Great question. The best answer is all of the above. There are times I'll think of a trade that might make sense and poke around by asking a writer or executive with another club. (The Marlins and Benitez being a good example, and there turned out to be some smoke there.) But generally it's looked down upon for a writer to "throw something against the wall." I won't stick a name out there unless I know the player has been scouted or mentioned in trade discussions. That's a pretty broad brush. If the Giants call Boston and ask about Manny Ramirez, that makes it fair game -- even if there's a 99.999 percent chance a trade wouldn't happen.

So why write it? Partially to cover your ass in case it happens, and partially because people loooooove trade rumors. (Except the players' families.) Even though it borders on infotainment at times like the winter meetings, I always strive to characterize trade or free-agent rumors accurately. In print, there's a big difference between "discussions" and "serious discussions."

One other example occurred to me: This winter, I knew the Giants needed a middle-of-the-order hitter and Pat Burrell had been on the block for some time. He's a Bay Area native, too. So I cold-called his agent and he told me that Pat would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to SF. Mind you, I had no information that the Giants had done anything more than kick around Burrell's name in internal discussions. But the fact Burrell was willing to waive his no-trade (something he previously had said he would only do for the Red Sox or Yankees) gave me a news entry to write the story. It became a good "talker" and had legs for a few weeks. A trade didn't happen, but nothing in the story was incorrect because I didn't overstate the situation.

Q: Why do you think Sabean has such a schizophrenic track record with trades: brilliant from '97 to '02, then almost nothing in his favor since?

A: Trades are like the weather. There's a certain amount of random chance involved. I can only speculate, but there might be a couple factors beyond luck that have contributed to his dry spell. 1. He has fewer prospects to trade because the team punted so many draft picks over the past five years. 2. The culture has changed. He just doesn't have as much in common with this younger generation of GMs, which makes it harder to brainstorm deals that can actually get consecrated. 3. Ned Colletti is in L.A.. There's no underestimating the impact of that move. 4. The Giants have to win now. Sabean can't afford to make certain kinds of deals, especially one that would be unpopular in the short term. The Matt Williams deal is a perfect example. Do you think Sabean could do that today? Hell no.

Q: Because of the crazy salary escalation, has trading become a much smaller part of a GM's strategy?

A: It depends on your market size, to an extent. If you're the Twins, you develop what you need and trade to fill the gaps. If you're the Yankees, it's much easier to buy what you want. The biggest problem with making trades is that young players under cost control have become insanely valuable commodities. You just don't see those four-prospect-for-a-star trades often anymore. Look at the Freddy Garcia/Gavin Floyd swap. That was all about the White Sox getting some cost control.

One of the most beautiful things in baseball is a well constructed trade that helps both teams. I'm sure some GMs are frustrated by all the financial impediments that keep deals from happening and have become dissuaded from spending, or wasting, so much time on them. But I think the best GMs in the in the game are still constantly looking to make deals like these, and occasionally they pull them off.

To be continued...

The Clenched SFist Is a Symbol of Defiance in Some Cultures

2007-03-15T18:36:00.000-07:00

Grant and Lefty down by the schoolyard: our SFist conversation, part 3. Please note that the editor of the SFist picked the Dodgers to win the division. I think he's angling for a promotion to run the LAist. Also please note the only comment on the message board as of 6:46 pm was a spam ad from a local race track, while as of this morning, the latest post on Gavin Newsom's new g-whizza Jen Siebel had more than 400 comments. It's now public and official: baseball bloggers are total dorkbots.

Springtime for Baggarly, Part 1

2007-03-15T11:15:00.000-07:00

I've never been to spring training, though much of what it's about -- the leisurely pace, the re-emergence of grass and sun, the loose camaraderie of players not yet under eye-popping pressure -- is what I love most about baseball. The simple act of finally playing catch again.

But spring training is now part of MLB's big business, and reporters are obliged to file daily to feed the hunger for news of roster maneuvers, slight injuries and trade hints that rotisserie leagues and bloggers (guilty as charged) stir up 24/7.

To get a taste of what it's like to cover a team day in and day out, I asked Andrew Baggarly, Giants beat writer for the San Jose Mercury News, to submit to a Q&A. Here's the first part:

El Lefty Malo: Give us a sense of your day during spring training. What time do you get to the park, what are your deadlines? How does that change during the season?

Baggarly: Spring training is the one time of year I work "normal" hours. Before games start, the clubhouse is open at 8 or 9 a.m. most days. I usually do the rounds collecting notes or just chatting with players, then when the workout begins, one of us (Chris Haft is the most frequent volunteer) usually makes a coffee and bagel run. The morning is spent transcribing interviews, which is the part of the job I hate most. During the season, I don't have to do much transcribing because most interviews have to do with daily or game stuff, you're on a tight deadline and you're just going off notes.

But we write features every other day in spring, so most interviews are in-depth and I always use a tape recorder for those. It takes most of the morning just to assemble all the material you need to write a feature. Usually I can get a fair amount of writing done in the morning too. They start throwing bullpens and BP around 11. I usually go on the field or walk to the right field deck to watch. It's always good to watch bullpens the first few days after pitchers and catchers report. You never know when a $126 million pitcher will invent a totally new delivery!

About 1 p.m., Bochy is available in the dugout. Then I go back into the clubhouse to see if any players are left. This is the best time for long interviews, like a 45-minute sit-down I had with Bengie Molina for the bigger piece I wrote on him. These usually need to be set up a day or two in advance, though. This time of the spring, I'm usually done by 3 p.m.

After exhibition games start, one problem is that I can't watch every inning of every game. The players shower and go home when their work is done, and for the starting pitcher and many regulars, that means they're gone long before the game ends. So we usually are allowed in the clubhouse around the fifth or sixth inning to talk to the starting pitcher. The other day, Bonds held court for 45 minutes while the game was still on.

This isn't normally a big problem since the later innings of Cactus League games aren't too important. But it has some drawbacks. For instance, I've seen Scott Munter pitch just once this spring.

For road games, I have to leave early to make sure I get a seat in the press box and a parking spot. Some places like HoHoKam get slammed. Ditto Seattle because they have a lot of Japanese media members. Unless it's a trip to Tucson, I'm pretty much done by 6 p.m. every day. There are plenty of fine dining establishments in the Scottsdale area, but I like to cook too and I'm renting a house so I've got all the facilities to have quiet evenings in whenever I like.

The biggest difference between spring and the season is that you're never on deadline during spring training. That doesn't mean I can send stuff in whenever I feel like it. The office wants to get feature copy in early because they're scrambling with other late stuff (late-breaking news, NBA, NHL, etc.) when getting close to press time. Still, any deadlines I'm under are pretty soft. It's a lot different than having to file a story the instant the game ends.

Q: I've heard the longer you cover a sport, the less a fan you become. Is that true?

A: Unfortunately, I think this is true to some extent. I was a huge, huge, HUGE Cubs fan growing up and skipped many a college class to sit in the Wrigley Field bleachers. The first few times I covered games at Wrigley, I could barely contain myself. That's sort of gone away. If I see Ron Santo in the press box, I don't get starry-eyed or ask for an autograph. We're both professionals, which means I have to turn the "fan" part of my brain off. So I really can't be a Cubs fan anymore, nor am I.

Like I often tell people, the only team I root for is the one leading after eight innings. As you might imagine, late lead changes are a killer on deadline. (A quick aside: I covered the Dodgers the year Eric Gagne won the Cy Young and never blew a save...I think the last two years of Benitez are payback from the baseball gods!)

But while you can't really be a fan of any team, I do think I'm a bigger baseball fan than ever before, because I know so many people within the game and I appreciate all of its nuances so much more. It's easy for people in any entertainment-type business to get jaded, and sportswriters are not particularly good at avoiding that. You hear a lot of griping in press boxes. But I always consider it a privilege to do what I do and I don't think it's hard to keep up my enthusiasm for the game. Still, it's a long season, and some days you can't help but feel worn down by the travel.

Q: Is it a challenge not to become too friendly with the players and thus compromise your ability to report potentially awkward or negative stories?

A: The most important thing you can be is professional. That works both ways. I had one player in the Giants clubhouse come up to me this spring and he wondered why we didn't rip the team harder last year. I think most of the players who "get it" know that when I'm writing with a negative slant, it's because the team isn't winning or the player isn't performing. It's not personal.

As long as you're fair and not taking cheap shots or writing with some semblance of schadenfreude, they shouldn't be ticked off. Yeah, I think it's possible to get too chummy with players, but you have to be outgoing and friendly. A good reporter seeks to develop a rapport with every person in the room. You can't get them to open up and share things unless they feel comfortable with you and believe that you'll treat them with fairness.

Q: Was it tough going back into the Giants clubhouse after you broke the story about pitchers' friction with A.J. Pierzynski?

A: It's a weird feeling to know the team is holding closed-door meetings and changing their pre-game routine because of a story you wrote. But my job is to take people inside the clubhouse and let them know what's going on behind those doors, and it was pretty obvious the situation with the catcher was affecting the team on and off the field.

It might be obvious, but it takes a few episodes like this in a reporter's career to understand that people aren't going to like everything you write. You can't worry about that. You have to have a thick skin. That wasn't always easy for me because I consider myself a people pleaser. But I came to understand that as long as I was fair and accurate, it didn't matter if people got upset at me for something I wrote. Everything in that story was 100 percent accurate and sourced up multiple times, so I had nothing to worry about.

I will say that in retrospect, I wish I had handled one aspect of that situation better: When I asked the catcher about his relationship with the staff, the questions were of a general nature. I didn't confront him with some of the specific accusations that several pitchers had told me, and I owed him that. Maybe I was afraid he'd go ballistic on me, then everyone in the clubhouse -- including other reporters -- would notice. It wasn't done that way out of any malice, but it wasn't the right way to handle it. If I had to do it all over again, I would have been more upfront with him before writing the story.

Q: When we hear that a player is out with a "stomach flu" or "food poisoning," how often is it the kind of flu Mickey Mantle used to get after spending a night out with Whitey Ford?

A: Oh, I'd imagine it happens from time to time, but I'd suspect the medical excuse is usually valid. Players take such better care of themselves these days. Plus, the Giants have been an older team and many have kids, which means colds and flus.

I've never covered up for a player, nor would I. If I suspect something is amiss, I'll do some digging. But nobody's going to come out and say that such-and-such was on a bender last night. It's kind of like the steroid era. It's irresponsible to write conjecture, which is why it took so long for that story to blossom.

To be continued...

Use Your SFist and Not Your Mouth

2007-03-14T19:17:00.000-07:00

Grant and Lefty parley-voo Giants, Part 2. The more time I spend on SFist, the more I get aggravated after reading the Zipcar ad that says, "350 hours a year having sex," because, really, come on, that's an hour a day nearly every day, or two hours a day every other day. Does anyone really do that? What? Everyone except me? Great.

On Your Toes and Hit that Line!

2007-03-14T10:49:00.000-07:00

Road trip to Fresno, anyone? Not to see the Bulldogs, sorry. But it's quite possible that the triple-A Fresno Grizzlies could start the year as entertaining as their big-league affiliate and provide a sneak peek at the Giants a year from now.

As reported yesterday, Jonathan Sanchez is being groomed this spring to start, which means he probably won't join the big-league bullpen next month. That's not a bad thing. His future is as a starter, so best to give him a few months at least to refine his game within a splitter's distance of the confluence of the Mighty 99 and the Yosemite Freeway.

With Tim Lincecum also likely to start the year as a FrezzGrizz, and a few other promising prospects (or at least entertaining, in the case of Erick Threets who throws 100 MPH but with control problems) optioned yesterday to AAA, here's a best guess at the ones worth watching come April in Fresno:

SP
Lincecum
Sanchez
Pat Misch

RP
Billy Sadler
Threets

OF
Nate Schierholtz
Eddie Martinez-Esteve
Fred Lewis

IF
Eugenio Velez
Travis Ishikawa

It's not too much a stretch to pencil Sanchez and Lincecum into the Giant rotation in 2008, Sadler and Misch into the bullpen, and Lewis and EME into the outfield rotation. Longer shots in my book are Ishikawa, Schierholtz and Threets.

The Giants may surprise us by keeping Lewis, Sadler or any of the three starting pitchers this April, but I doubt it. For those who don't follow prospects closely, one guy worth watching is Velez, whom the Giants plucked from the Toronto farm system in the Rule 5 draft last year, stashed in low-A ball, and watched tear up the Sally League. Problem is, he's relatively old -- 25 this May. It's a long way from low-A to AAA, and just as far again to the bigs. Can he do well against his peers? I've heard he might be moved from second base, where he's been wreaking havoc all spring, to the outfield a la Alfonso Soriano, so keep an eye not only on how he hits in Fresno but where he plays defense.

While we're in Fresno, I really want to check out this place, too. I hope you don't mind.

Ich Bin Ein SFist

2007-03-13T20:29:00.000-07:00

Part one of a preseason discussion with me, El Lefty Malo, and the handsome, mysterious Grant Macronico, is now available to download for your eyeballs on SFist.com.

And no, neither one of us is Gavin Newsom's new girlfriend.

Cy Younger

2007-03-13T07:55:00.000-07:00

[Ed. Note: I've made a few changes to the following post. Thanks to A. Baggarly for the gentle corrections.]

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News [not Oakland Trib, though because of corporate ownership, his work appears there, too] has nailed down the details of the Matt Cain contract in today's report. The big picture: if Cain triggers the fifth-year option and all the escalators, he'll earn $17.75 million through 2011.

The breakdown:

2007: $400,000
2008: $700,000
2009: $2.65 million
2010: $4.25 million

Also:
* $1 million signing bonus, which I'll count as next year's salary [not this year's, as it's due to Cain in Jan. '08] on the chart to the right.
* 2011 club option for $6.25 million that vests if one of five conditions are met. The conditions are complicated; all but the final condition include Cy Young votes, and a DL stint due to arm injury at the end of 2010 would void the option unless Cain is that year's Cy Young winner or he throws full seasons in both '09 and '10.
* Escalators: the option can rise to as much as $8.15 million. He can add $200,000 to his pay in '09 and $400,000 in '10 if he makes 32 starts or pitches 210 innings.

Other notes: Baggarly also reports that Jonathan Sanchez continues to build up arm strength to start, not to relieve. He could begin the year in the AAA rotation. If so, I'd guess Jack Taschner has the inside track on coming north.

***

PM UPDATE: No surprise, but Todd Linden seems close to making the team as fourth outfielder. Bruce Bochy says as much here. He's been playing Linden in center field this spring, which could be bad news for Jason Ellison. The more comfortable Linden gets in center, the less need the Giants have for Ellison.

Records Were Made to Be Broken

2007-03-12T12:18:00.000-07:00

We're getting close to seeing some of the open roster spots nailed down. Brad Hennessey not only thinks Russ Ortiz has "pretty much locked up" the fifth-starter job, he also wants to be traded.

Jason Ellison is forcing his consideration as a bench player. Armando Benitez has returned to active duty, presumably under the scrutiny of many opposing teams' scouts.

I'll wait a few more days to assess the various camp competitions. Here's another to consider: Best Album by a Recently-Hired Giant Employee or Spouse Thereof.

The nominations:
Finding My Way
The Wayward Wind

Vote early, vote often.

Use 'Em or Lose 'Em

2007-03-08T08:58:00.000-08:00

Steve Goldman, who writes a Yankees blog for the Yes Network, takes up the debate I highlighted a couple days ago: should phenom pitchers be forced to hone their craft in the minors even if they're pretty damn good already? Goldman applies the question to Yankees' wunderkind, 20-year-old Phil Hughes. His answer: Bring him on.

The Yankees will expend a great deal of mental energy on trying to figure out when Hughes is "ready" — he has yet to pitch above Double-A — and yet he probably is ready, an anxious spring training debut last Thursday notwithstanding. Ninety-nine percent of pitching prospects go through their entire professional lives without having a month resembling Hughes's career line. Expecting further progress is a bit like saying, "We have Tom Seaver right now, but we think we could get Roger Clemens."

So the rumble builds to bring Tim Lincecum north in three weeks, an anxious spring training debut yesterday notwithstanding. In the article hereby linked, note that Craig Counsell was not impressed.

"He's got a good arm. I don't think he was that good today," Counsell said. "I've heard some people talking about him. You can see it, but I don't think he was on top of his game."

Asked if he was surprised to see so much power from such a little body, Counsell said, "There are no bonus points for throwing hard because you're small. You've got to make pitches. Guys who make pitches get outs."

Let's see how Lincecum fares the next two or three times out. Strikeouts against the opposing pitcher don't count. If he seems ready, the big question becomes: starter or reliever? I open the floor to debate.

****

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Just added to the link list is Joe Posnanski's The Soul of Baseball. Posnanski covers -- or used to cover, I'm not quite sure -- the Royals for the K.C. Star and is using the blog to promote his new book of the same name. He's also one of the best baseball writers in the land.

Now reading: Absurdistan, by Gary Shteyngart. So far it's total farce, which is great. John Kennedy Toole's A Confederacy of Dunces is one of my faves. In fact, Shteyngart's protagonist, the obese, Hamlet-esque, bicultural Misha (a.k.a. Snack Daddy), reminds me of Ignatius J. Reilly transported into a tale of post-Soviet, post-9/11 misadventure capitalism. Like Toole, Shteyngart makes me laugh out loud at least once every few pages. But to make farce work over the length of a novel, it needs depth, darkness, complexity, and nearly 100 pages in, I'm starting to feel the fabric stretch a bit thin.

Bonds Third, Durham Fourth

2007-03-07T08:45:00.000-08:00

According to reports from Arizona this morning, Bruce Bochy is testing a lineup with Barry Bonds in the third slot, somwhere Bonds hasn't been since 2002. Bochy's reasons are sound: get Bonds up in the first inning and get him his subsequent at-bats earlier, which gives Bochy more flexibility in bringing in a defensive sub.

Ray Durham will still bat behind Bonds, as the cleanup guy. One other lineup note: there's talk about batting Randy Winn eighth because of Benjie Molina's lack of speed. Molina is so slow, it's difficult for a pitcher to bunt him to second. And even if Molina reaches second, he's no lock to score from second on a basehit.

Here's one possible lineup against RHP:

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
LF Bonds
2B Durham
1B Klesko
3B Aurilia
C Molina
RF Winn
p

Against lefty starters, the picture is less clear. According to Todd Linden, whose quotes -- often wondering what the Giants are thinking -- have been all over the papers recently, the Giants still think he's better as a RH hitter. He may get the bulk of his starts against LHP and as a CF, where he's been playing a lot so far this spring.

Roberts has always sat against tough lefties, which will undoubtedly continue under Bochy. But who will lead off in his absence? And will Feliz and Klesko platoon, with Klesko 1B/Aurilia 3B against righties and Aurilia 1B/Feliz 3B against lefties?

Here's one possible lineup against LHP:

RF Winn
SS Vizquel
LF Bonds
2B Durham
CF Linden
1B Aurilia
3B Feliz
C Molina
p

*****

PM UPDATE: SI.com has a profile of Barry Zito worth reading. As player profiles go, it's not pure fluff, with some insight into his new delivery (yes, he has made some subtle changes) and his role as P.R. distraction and mentor (he took Matt Cain out for drinks at the Redwood Room in the Clift Hotel).

The Other Side of Tinstaapp

2007-03-06T08:27:00.000-08:00

No, we're not talking about a remote islet in the Dutch Antilles.

For those of you not familiar with the acronym TINSTAAPP -- There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect -- it was coined by Baseball Prospectus writer Gary Huckabay several years ago and is frequently used to squash overenthusiasm about bright young pitchers making waves in the minor leagues.

It's used as shorthand for "Pitchers get injured far more often than hitters, so don't get too excited. One year you're Tim Lincecum, the next you're Brien Taylor."

Yesterday, Huckabay revisited the meaning of TINSTAAPP in a BP article, part of a series the site is running called "Hope and Faith" that asks what it will take for each team to win the World Series this year. Huckabay takes on the Giants. You can read his assessment of the team here, and you can read a discussion of the story here.

I won't get into his five-point plan. Instead I want to highlight Huckabay's reminder that there's a second piece to TINSTAAPP: because pitchers are more fragile, it's a good idea to use the best ones early. A 22-year-old (like Lincecum) carving his way through the minors (like Lincecum) is more likely to be as good as he's ever going to get, says Huckabay, than a 22-year-old hitter raking balls all over the double-A Eastern League. Because of the injury factor -- the inevitable wear and tear on a pitcher's body -- it's foolish to waste that phenom pitcher's talent in the minors.

In other words, There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect, because once a true prospect is indentified, he should quickly be a major leaguer and no longer a prospect.

Huckabay then applies it directly to Tim Lincecum: "...guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects -- they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows. No pressure, but Tim Lincecum in 2007 = Johan Santana in 2003, if the Giants are going to go anywhere. There’s nobody that doesn’t know that without Lincecum, the Giants aren’t going to win. Some of us might not want to admit it, but c’mon."

Huckabay's premise seems to feed the short-term, win-now mentality that keeps a team like the Giants from rebuilding and maximizing future health. He basically says use it or lose it, damn the long-term consequences. If Lincecum is ready, of course bring him up. But as a general rule, I'm not convinced. Any thoughts?

* Quote of the day: Russ Ortiz told the Chronicle's Gwen Knapp he had lost weight by cutting sugar out of his diet. He said he expected to lose 5 to 6 pounds and dropped 12 to 13 instead. "That was pretty much it, so it goes to show you how much sugar I was eating," he said. "...I always used to eat whatever I wanted and work out, and it kind of evened out."

* My favorite shill has left the blogosphere. Rich Draper, who "covered" the Giants for MLB.com, is no longer providing a wealth of purple prose for our amusement. New "beat writer" Chris Haft (who used to cover the Giants for the Merc) has taken over. Let's remember Draper fondly, shall we?

I've Got Me a Date with Botticelli's Niece

2007-03-05T09:05:00.000-08:00

A couple years ago Oakland Trib beat writer Andrew Baggarly broke the news that AJ Pierzynski was a jerk-face. OK, maybe not "broke," but certainly "reinforced."

Baggarly took some heat at the time -- by the typical fandoids who say sports reporters should stick to telling us about the games played on the fields, courts, and ice -- but his story was a touchstone that year. It turned out the guy who outed AJ, Brett Tomko, wasn't exactly Mr. Wonderful, although he won back a lot of points in my book for his artistic touch.

Now Baggarly has struck again, revealing the truth about another Giant whose eccentricities may have his teammates scratching their heads. It turns out Omar Vizquel is a major artist, and not just with the glove. This isn't breaking news; I've seen previous mentions of Omar's artistic inclinations.

But Baggarly devotes a full feature, visiting Vizquel's suburban Seattle home, which was designed around a Dale Chihuly glass sculpture. He's not just a charcoal pony sketcher, not just a wearer of outrageous duds, not just a groovy musician, but a multi-talented, intellectually curious, creative dude. His media include acrylic paints, marble, fallen trees, and bronze. He goes crazy in the art store and once even used a chain saw.

Please note that he is not such an aesthete as to dismiss worldly pleasures, especially those to which his teammates -- or 90% of them, statistically speaking, if you know what I mean -- can relate: "My favorite thing to paint," he says, "are the naked ladies."

***

Mo' Mound Mechanics: The hard cheese of Matt Cain. Includes video breakdown, with side-by-side comparison to Dice-K -- a must-see. Thanks to this McCoven post for the link and subsequent discussion.

Noise Pop

2007-03-02T15:01:00.000-08:00

The Matt Cain contract is 4 years, $9 million, plus a mysterious 5th year option that includes "escalators." For some reason whenever I hear that word in relation to baseball contracts I think of the shoes David Bowie wore in Ziggy Stardust. I know, those are "platforms." Talk to my neuropsychologist. Or perhaps my cognitive therapist. Or my pharmacist. Speaking of which, I'll be consulting these Pharmacists tonight.

Back to the contract: Other than the years and total dollars, we still don't know the details, including the year-over-year pay scale. Very frustrating.

I was way off with my 5 year, $26 M prediction, unless the option and escalators boosts the contract significantly. And it could -- Lowry's option is $6.25 million but bonuses could bump it to $7.75 M with the total value of the contract reaching $17 M. But it seems nearly impossible for Cain to earn what I had predicted.

Bottom line: This is a great deal. They're overpaying a bit for two more years in order to get a hell of a bargain through 2011. (Assuming Cain stays healthy, of course.)

People Play Baseball. Numbers Don't.

2007-03-01T10:22:00.000-08:00

Since people are finally playing baseball today, the first day of spring-training games, I thought I'd start off by quoting the New York Times resident curmudgeon Murray Chass, who railed two days ago against "new-age" things such as certain baseball statistics with funny names. He really doesn't like VORP.

I admit, VORP does sound funny. VORP VORP VORP! Snicker-snack, it's so Jabberwockian! But "ERA" sounds funny, too, especially when you think about baseball pitchers who chew tabacky and rub liniment on their arms getting confused with pissed-off women burning their bras on the streets of Washington.

I caricature because I love. As do the fellows at Fire Joe Morgan, who eviscerate Murray Chass here. I'll let them carry most of the water in making the argument, but dammit, why do people like Chass bury their head in the sand when it comes to new statistics? Batting average is a statistic, ERA is a statistic, saves is a statistic. Chass (and others like him, some who read this site) feel quite comfortable quoting those stats.

And they're not even good stats. Certainly batting average: it's a terrible way to make a strong, precise evaluation of a player's worth. Why the resistance to newer, perhaps better stats? When you were eight, you spent a few minutes learning how to calculate batting average. Why not take a few minutes now, in the adult phase of your development cycle, to understand VORP? It's a pretty handy concept.

I end with a full quote from Chass's column: "I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein. People play baseball. Numbers don’t."

Threat? Undermine? Substitute "Communism" for "new-age statistics" and you have a McCarthyite rant. Swap in "atheism" for "new-age statistics" and you have paranoid Bible-thumping. And if you think I'm trying to knock down a strawman, consider that beyond whoever writes about baseball for USA Today, Chass may be the most widely-read baseball scribe in the land.

Raising Cain

2007-02-28T13:35:00.000-08:00

The Giants are expected to announce later today a four-year contract with a fifth-year option for Matt Cain. I wrote about this three weeks ago and even predicted a contract of 5 years, $26 million. While we're waiting for the details, read this to see how I arrived at that number.

Mound Mechanics, Part 2

2007-02-27T16:15:00.000-08:00

Here's part two of my e-mail conversation with a minor-league Brewer pitcher about mechanics. We started e-mailing when Zito seemed to be drastically changing his delivery to bring his body farther down the mound and his release point closer to the batter.

Brewer pitcher: There are two schools of thought when it comes to the position of the release point. The traditional thought, and the one most scouts use when evaluating a pitcher, is making sure the pitcher is throwing on a downhill plane. A higher release point is preferred.

Zito's change will result in his release being much closer to the plate, therefore affecting a hitter's reaction time and in theory making his pitches move closer to the plate. His curve will probably have much less break, but the break will occur closer to the plate. If you watch Zito's traditional curve, it actually goes up fairly high right out of his hand, while his "new" curve will look more like a fastball at first. Zito's fastball, while it may or may not pick up some velocity, will probably be more effective as it will get on the hitter quicker due to the release being closer to the plate.

The momentum that Zito is creating with his body is the reason why it feels so stress free on the arm. His body will be moving quicker and more efficiently and his arm will be "along for the ride." My one concern is that the crouch will tire out his legs, as it takes time to get used to the new delivery.

[E.L.M. notes: That was one of Righetti's concerns, too. It also bears noting that the teachings of Tom House are not universally admired. Perhaps his most famous detractor is Mike Marshall, the former Dodger pitcher and current pitching instructor. Marshall has plenty of his own detractors, including this guy. I won't even try to take sides.]

E.L.M.: You say that if anyone can incorporate the changes, Zito can because he has great balance. I've read that pitchers are turning more to yoga. This is fascinating because a lot of pitching -- the forces of momentum, the balance, the stillness within the violent motion -- is similar to what one learns in yoga. Have you tried it? Is this something organizations are asking pitchers to try?

BP: I've been meaning to get involved with it. Many pitchers have been using it in recent years. The flexibility and other elements definitely seem great for pitching. In our program, we have four days of lifting and Wednesday is an off-day, but we were encouraged to take part in activities such as yoga or pilates.

[BP sent E.L.M. a video of his own motion to illustrate some of the principles Tom House espouses and Zito temporarily tried.]

E.L.M.: Got it, thanks. That's quite a crouch at the set position. Looks like it actually puts a lot of pressure on the knees.

BP: I wouldn't say there was too much pressure on the knees, although I didn't pitch like that long enough to find out.

E.L.M.: I'm also curious about the exaggerated closed stance. What's the thinking behind that? Doesn't it force you to throw across your body, which I've always thought was a no-no?

BP: My closed stance was probably more than most, but I'm pretty sure House suggests a slightly closed stance only because the leg has less distance to travel into leg-lift. It could [result in] throwing slightly across the body, which is generally a no-no but not necessarily the worst thing in the world. Excessive throwing across the body can be harmful, though.

[E.L.M. notes: If anyone remembers former Giant right-handed reliever John Johnstone, he was an example of "throwing across the body." When viewed from center field, it looked like his stride went toward the right-handed batter's box, not home plate. This slight angle shift forced his arm to travel farther to make up for the mis-alignment of his torso. Jonathan Sanchez also looks like he throws a bit across the body.]

Thanks for your excellent questions from the first part of the Q&A. I haven't sent them to our friend yet. I'll wait to see if this segment spurs more questions, then I'll send them all at once. So fire away.

Have a Naisude

2007-02-26T11:20:00.000-08:00

Huh? Read this and you'll get it.

SMALL PRINT UPDATE:

Just added to the non-baseball blog roll is the food-related site The Bistro Hugo, a small piece of my expanding empire of online mischief. Please re-direct all Colossal Squid enquiries there.

Mound Mechanics, Part 1

2007-02-25T23:35:00.000-08:00

As I mentioned last week, I recently had an email conversation about Barry Zito's new delivery with a minor league pitcher in the Brewers organization. Sorry, I can't say who. He asked that I not identify him any further at this point, but I did get video confirmation of his identity. Our discussion gets into some finer points of pitching mechanics, fascinating to me and, I hope, to some of you.

Soon after we began our conversation, word came out that Zito was going back to his "old" style -- his upright delivery that helps him snap off the 12-to-6 curve. But we continued and I learned a lot about current theories of pitching mechanics, specifically that what Zito had hinted of doing -- crouching more at first and extending his stride -- is a core part of what Tom House teaches. I'll post the interview in two parts. Here's part one:

El Lefty Malo: I hear that you're familiar with what Barry Zito's doing, changing his delivery back to what he did in college. Any thoughts on what's going on?

Brewers pitcher: Sounds like he's doing something that I experimented with last year with Tom House. Zito has been known to work with House in the past. [E.L.M. notes: I e-mailed House to ask about Zito but got no response.]

If you watch most pitchers, they start tall on the mound. At some point in the delivery their head has to drop a bit in order for them to throw. The crouch will eliminate this drop and make it so that Zito's head moves in a straight line toward the plate. The head drop is considered unnecessary movement.

E.L.M.: Is the goal to maximize the pitcher's vision of the target?

BP: The point is not so much to maximize vision, but that any movement not toward the plate is wasted energy not put into the pitch. The way to find out just how much one should crouch is to go to the release point and simply back up to the rubber without moving the head. This will show you where to start and how much to bend your knees.

E.L.M.: What about the exaggerated take-back before he begins his stride? Zito called it "old school" -- I imagine Luis Tiant or Dizzy Dean or someone with lots of wild extra motion. Righetti said it'll be a problem when he gets on a real field because the mounds tend to fall off quickly, not like the gentle slope of the practice mounds.

BP: [It's] probably just Zito bringing his knee up high and toward 2nd base. As he is doing this, his hips will start moving toward the plate resulting in extra potential energy that will be used later in the delivery. The result will be a longer stride. Without even thinking about it, the extra momentum will help Zito stride farther and get his release point closer to the plate. The release will be noticeably lower. This change will almost definitely change his famous curveball but could enhance his fastball.

[E.L.M. notes: Here is a photo of Zito on the first day when he tried out the new mechanics -- courtesy of the Chronicle. For comparison, I haven't found an adequate photo of his return to the "old" delivery. As soon as I find one, I'll link or post it.]

As far as other big league pitchers that throw in a similar fashion, Anthony Reyes of the Cardinals is probably the closest example. He definitely doesn't have the big leg kick, but if you watch him, particularly from the stretch, he bends his knees a bit and makes sure his head goes straight to the plate.

[E.L.M. notes: I can't find a photo of Reyes in the stretch position. Readers, please let me know if you find one. But remember in the N.L. playoffs last year when Reyes got into trouble against the Mets? Pitching coach Dave Duncan told Reyes to pitch exclusively from the stretch. Interesting.]

Two days later...

E.L.M.: So, in today's reports Zito backed off his new delivery.

BP: I'm not all that shocked. I knew Righetti would be uncomfortable with the changes, and apparently he won out. If Zito does try and incorporate a couple of the changes, it could be difficult. I tried this last year and ran into some consistency issues. If anyone can do it, however, it is Zito because he really is an amazing athlete and has incredible balance.

To be continued...

Friday Notes

2007-02-23T11:04:00.000-08:00

Item! The SF Chronicle has launched the "Sports Columnist" blog, which covers all sports. The first baseball-related entry gets off to a thoroughly confusing start. Bruce Jenkins (Jenkins? Confusing? Who knew?) describes Russ Ortiz "in his prime" this way:

There was absolutely no mystery to his delivery; the way he gripped the ball and unloaded, he seemed to be saying to himself, "I'll just aim it right here." We all know the results: Ortiz was often overpowering, with better-than-average control and a biting slider that offset a fastball that, in some scouts' opinion, was all too straight.

Sigh. Bruce must be too busy eating donuts, because a cursory check of Ortiz's past life with the Giants shows annual walk totals of 125, 112, 91 and 94. He went to Atlanta and posted totals of 102 and 112. Granted, these numbers don't approach the top-100 list of most walks allowed in a season -- mainly from the pre-1900 years -- but a little more digging shows that even in his best year, 2001, when he went 17-9 with a 3.29 ERA and 169 Ks, he walked 3.8 batters per 9 innings. That's 0.5 above the league average for 2001. Ortiz's control was worse in every other year, often topping 5 walks per 9 IP, while the league averages were more or less consistent.

So whatever you think of Ortiz in his prime -- maddening, overpowering, friendly, a fan favorite, a "gamer" -- he absolutely, positively did not have "better-than-average control." Five minutes of computer time would have saved Bruce from being Dead Wrong in Public, as he loves to write in his column.

This type of analysis would normally score Jenkins points with the "I remember it, thus it was so, and damn the pointy-headed statistics" crowd. Problem is, Bruce is all alone on this one. You could randomly survey people streaming illegally across the border, ask them about Russ Ortiz's career, and 8 out of 10 would say, "Ortiz? You mean the pendejo who walked so many batters?"

In fact, another trait of Ortiz -- ask anyone who followed the Giants then -- is that his fastball was not at all straight. It had a natural "cut" motion to it, sort of like Mariano Rivera. It was one reason he walked so many -- he could never quite harness the powerful lateral movement. Which "scouts" does Jenkins cite? Johnnie Walker and Jim Beam, perhaps, whom he keeps handy for consultation in a flask in his desk drawer?

We all know the results: you're Wrong Again in Public, Bruce.

Item! Tim Lincecum pitched batting practice yesterday. He drew a crowd and this comment from Barry Bonds, according to Mark Sweeney: "Barry said, 'His ball's pretty straight.' Usually big-league hitters hit a fastball that's pretty straight."

Item! El Duque is back in New York having his neck examined. It doesn't seem too serious for now, but if he's sidelined any length of time, the Mets will be even more desperate to fill their rotation. Without El Duque, and until Pedro Martinez returns from surgery, they basically have Tom Glavine and a bunch of potential fifth starters. Why is this Giants-related? Because the fast arrival of Lincecum could sway the Giants toward a trade of, say, Matt Morris, or Noah Lowry, who could bring a strong positional prospect in return. Lastings Milledge, anyone?

SMALL PRINT UPDATE:

Now listening to Tribalistas, a Brazilian supergroup effort that won a Latin Grammy award in 2003 and all sorts of awards and airplay in Brazil. I was oblivious to all this when I found it in the Marisa Monte section at Amoeba. Monte, Carlinhos Brown and Arnaldo Antunes are the three members, and their mainly acoustic songs have a disarming lullaby sweetness -- in tone, at least, since I don't understand Portuguese.

The simplicity is deceptive. The songs are sprinkled with quirky electronic touches -- better to listen on headphones -- and undergirded by one of the most remarkable instruments I've heard in a long while: Antunes's bullfrog rumble of a voice, about the lowest I've ever heard in pop music. It's the vocal equivalent of the pedal tones on a brass instrument, nearly sub-auditory but deeply penetrating, and in harmony with Monte (and Brown?), it's mesmerizing. Listen to enough music and you find yourself longing for something, anything new; find it, and it goes into heavy rotation.

Is Your Star Sign Ever Wrong?

2007-02-21T10:03:00.000-08:00

Quick hits only today, like this quote from a BP interview with Shea Hillenbrand (subscription req'd):

Q: What was it like playing with Barry Bonds?

SH: Unbelievable. Barry Bonds is one of the nicest guys I’ve ever met; one of the best teammates I’ve ever had. I wasn’t intimidated by him, so we got along well. He’s probably the greatest ever, and I talked to him a lot about hitting. I utilized him as a resource. I’ve played with elite players before, and Barry just wanted to play the game and be his own person. In some ways we’re a lot alike. He’s a Leo, like me.

Meatball?

2007-02-20T11:59:00.000-08:00

Omar Vizquel wants a two-year contract extension. This is the final year of a three-year, $12.25 million deal. The Giants will pay him $1 million in 2008 and $750,000 in 2009, thanks to a deferred signing bonus.

The team des not have a bona fide shortstop prospect in the high minors, so signing Omar to a one- or two-year deal isn't going to block anyone's progress. Question of the day: if you were Brian Sabean, what would you do?

Before you answer, read this excerpt from Will Carroll's latest health report on Baseball Prospectus:

I was walking through the halls at Bristol (the same one you see in the Eli and Peyton Manning ads from last season) when a guy walked past me wearing a powder-blue suit with wide lapels. I mean, 70’s-tux powder blue. Big knot on his tie and actual spats on his shoes. It’s the type of sartorial ridiculousness reserved for sublime athletes. Yes, Vizquel may be the baseball version of Michael Irvin, at least as far as being a fashion plate.

OK, now you can answer.

***

P.M. UPDATE: Best t-shirts of the year, even better than my "How to fold a burrito" shirt.

Barry Zito, My Libido (A Denial, A Denial)

2007-02-19T10:53:00.000-08:00

After last week's brush fire, Barry Zito said over the weekend he's not really overhauling his pitching motion. It was all overblown. It was all taken out of context. He blames the media.

"It's all a work in progress," Zito said. "The plan is to do things a certain way and reincorporate them into the original look and feel. What happened was, a cross-section of that got blown out of proportion without (everyone) seeing the entire project."

Welcome to $126 Millionville, Barry. You are the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. Like it or not, that changes the focus. There was apparently a "negative ESPN report," which I didn't see because I don't have ESPN, but it points out another thing to which Zito must acclimate: Being a Giant. The national media now looks askance at everything that emanates from Our Fair Ballclub, thanks to years of BALCOmania chipping away at the organization's credibility.

Add that to the nation's perception that if it's weird, it happens in San Francisco. Gay-marriage mayor boozes and bangs best friend's wife? That would be us. It's not necessarily a fair perception, sock-puppet campaign ads notwithstanding, because...um...because...hell, what's the use? Whatever I say will be overwhelmed by the evidence, and next week's papers will bring news of Gavin and Barry Z. double-dating with Brittanie Mountz and Hilary Duff at the International Bear Rendezvous.

Any hope for an adult discussion about the finer points of pitching mechanics are right out the window, folks, when you have Zany Left-Handed Pitcher + Biggest Contract Ever + America's Shadiest Team in America's Weirdest City. God save Zito if he tries to demonstate Virabhadrasana II to Murray Chass. (Although the New York Times and its cadre of Jurassic sports scribes surprised me last week with a mostly snark-free piece about pitchers doing yoga.)

To lend an air of suspect sophistication to this otherwise potty-minded blog, El Kinesthesiologist Malo will be following the Zito Project as it unfolds. I'll post some commentary later this week from a minor-league pitcher about some of the changes Zito seems to be incorporating into his delivery. All you pitching geeks be sure to tune in, as we'll get fairly technical.

Meanwhile, here's the antidote to all the swirling gusts of blather (including mine) that overwhelm us when games aren't being played: Spring training photos! Like the pink blossoms on the ornamental fruit trees up and down my block this week, Giants Jottings has returned to warm the heart and soothe the pineal gland with photos from Arizona. "Giantfan9" publishes new stuff nearly every day, so visit him regularly between now and April 3.

As In Wreck

2007-02-17T23:32:00.000-08:00

Notice these? The Giants have ugly spring training hats with wavy swoosh lines on the sides. (That's Tim Lincecum modeling the atrocious lid.)

It's not just the Giants. All teams seem to be wearing them this year (scroll through some other team Web sites, you'll see), part of the top-down marketing onslaught to which MLB has subjected us the past few years. I'm not quite sure when it started, but the batters' walk-up music, the alternate jerseys... keep your eyes and ears peeled and you'll find lots of little things that are obviously league-wide mandates dreamt up by the pinheads at HQ.

Where's Bill Veeck when you need him?

Mad, I Tell You, Mad!

2007-02-16T13:55:00.000-08:00

Busy today, but I'm fiercely pondering Zito's new motion. More to come this weekend, I hope. Meanwhile, check out this picture of The New Barry explaining to Steve Kline why a beard tends to decelerate one's aerodynamic tantric aura. And how exactly did Kline spend his off-season? Reading the Unabomber Manifesto? Eating goulash with Al Hrabosky?

Zito Throws a Curve

2007-02-15T18:50:00.000-08:00

Barry Zito today threw off a mound for the first time as a Giant...and had a completely different pitching motion.

For those of you who don't see the big deal, this is like President Bush changing course in Iraq when everything is going so well.

No? I'll try again: this is like Tiger Woods completely breaking down his swing and rebuilding it after winning a zillion championships, which Tiger actually did, as the articles on the Web all note.

But this is more drastic. It's so drastic that I've italicized it. The difference here is that Zito risks serious injury from throwing himself out of whack; Tiger just risked losing skills. Despite his declining numbers the past couple years, one thing Zito has excelled at is health. And the Giants are expecting durability.

So from one Lefty Malo to another, Barry, I say this: I love love LOVE it. You are so weird. (Are you from Holland?) All that money, all those babes, and you want to go back to your college windup that, from the description, sounds like something Dizzy Dean broke off after a night out shooting Wild Turkey.

Hey, wait a second. Barry's not pulling a fast one, is he? He certainly is giving Rags the spilkes. If this is a prank, you're cracking me up, but dude, stop. You're trying to make this team fun again. Mark Sweeney already did that, and look where it got him: extra time to stare at Ryan Klesko's spit cup. If Bonds with a coconut brassiere doesn't help, nothing will.

Off The Record

2007-02-15T08:22:00.000-08:00

So we finally know who leaked Barry Bonds's grand jury testimony to the San Francisco Chronicle. Yesterday it was revealed to be Troy Ellerman, the defense attorney for BALCO chief Victor Conte. After the Chronicle articles hit the streets with the testimony of Bonds and other athletes, Ellerman complained to the presiding judge that his client couldn't get a fair trial because of the press reports.

This, my little friendlikins, is the very definition of what my people call chutzpah.

There's been much debate among Giants fans whether the Chron reporters deserved punishment for publishing secret grand jury testimony. One argument: the grand jury system requires confidentiality; if witnesses think their testimony will be leaked, they won't show up.

I don't have the legal expertise to corroborate that (can't they be compelled to testify by subpoena, no matter how scared they are of leaks?), but this argument -- the leaks poison the atmosphere of trust needed for grand juries to function -- seems more germane to the ability of the press to do its job.

The BALCO case wasn't the only leak involving reporters and their sources. The Lewis Libby trial, tortured as it is to follow, is another, and there's the lower-profile but no less interesting case of the blogger who's been in jail for six months for refusing to hand over to the feds a videotape of an anarchist street rally.

Full disclosure: I make my living as a news gatherer, so I'm a wee bit biased, but here's how I see it. The general trend in all these cases is to make news gatherers reveal their sources or go to jail. Most states have "shield laws" in place that prevent reporters from having to rat out their sources, but there is no federal shield law. If it's a federal case, journalists can be compelled to testify. (If the Dems have their way, there will be a federal shield law, but there's many a slip between the cup of Pelosian happy-talk and the lip of a Rose Garden signing ceremony.)

Once journos start having to reveal their sources, the sources will be far less willing to reveal themselves to journalists. Many sources don't trust us, anyway, and require a lot of coaxing to come forth with anonymous information. Once there's no guarantee that even a reporter's solemn oath to protect a source's identity will keep the subpoenas at bay, a lot of whistleblowers will melt back into the shadows.

You might say that in the BALCO case, that's all well and good. Mr. Sleazebag Lawyer wouldn't have leaked the grand jury testimony, and the wolves of speculation would not be howling so ferociously around Barry Bonds's campsite. Barry (and Gary, and Jason) wouldn't be getting such a raw deal. And their civil rights wouldn't be so violated.

But is the solution a crackdown on all reporters who publish information they shouldn't have obtained? If so, we never would have had the release of the Pentagon Papers 36 years ago. Or, if you like, much of the reporting in the past couple years that has exposed the questionable practices of our government in the name of national security.

I'm the first to bemoan many of the lurid intrusions of the press into private lives. Partially it's a matter of taste: I couldn't care less how many men claim to have inseminated Anna Nicole Smith. Does that information make us better citizens? Unfortunately, a great number of my fellow citizens prefer to follow that story 24-7 on cable TV than, say, North Korean nuclear negotiations. I'm not going to bang my head against that particular wall of human nature.

Does the public have a right to know that Barry Bonds stood before a grand jury and kinda sorta admitted to using illegal performance-boosting drugs despite his many public denials? (And that Jason Giambi flat-out admitted it?) Beyond the right to know, does knowing it make us a better-informed public?

I don't have a definitive answer, except to say this: Journalistic excess is bad. What's worse is a legal climate that severely restricts the ability of the press to publish sensitive information that should be made public. The more you see journalists in jail or on the witness stand, the more restrictive that climate becomes.

***

P.M. UPDATE: According to this wire story, Barry is officially on board and will report to camp Monday. Barry's on the 40-man roster to the right now that he's signed sealed and delivered (link props to Elbo and his excellent riposte to a Slate essay that bemoans post-swing jazz).

Shadowing Goldstein

2007-02-14T09:51:00.000-08:00

As I wrote last month, I've been tracking Kevin Goldstein's team-by-team top-10 prospect lists as he's rolled them out on Baseball Prospectus this winter.

About half way through, I decided to rank his top-10 rankings; I gave "Excellent" prospects 6 points, "Very good" 4 points, "Good" 2 points, and "Average" just 1. (For the Giants, Goldstein gave only one excellent, Lincecum, two very goods, Villalona and Sanchez, one good, Burriss, and six averages, EME, Schoop, Lewis, Schierholtz, Sadler, and McBryde. In my system that produced a score of 22. Top score, running away with it, was Tampa Bay with 40, bottom of the pile was Washington with 16.)

Now that he's finished all 30 and ranked the organizations, let's see how close my back-of-napkin ranking system compares to his.

Please note, his rankings are more complicated. He factors in players who aren't in the top-10, splits the talent between pitching and hitting, and adapts them to the famous 20-to-80 scouting scale. But in general my little sketch worked well. His top 10 organizations are my top 10 -- D-Rays, Rockies, Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers, Reds, Royals -- although I have the Mets in a tie for third and he drops them down to 8th.

I have the Giants ranked in a five-way tie for 15th, Goldstein has them 17th. Here's his thumbnail description: "Pretty much the entire group of good hitting prospects went splat at Double-A, but Angel Villalona is already a scouting legend at 16. Tim Lincecum leads off a pitching group that offers depth and little else."

No argument from me there, although I'd like Villalona to first play organized professional baseball before we anoint his brow with rare sumptuous oils. To move up the rankings in coming years, the Giants need to draft smarter starting this June, when they have six of the first 51 picks, according to this.

The system will also jump a couple notches if EME, who went "splat" because of injury not performance, stays healthy, hits in Fresno, and shows he can play the field without people in the stands saying, "Ooh, that's gotta hurt."

Also note the system will slip dramatically if both Lincecum and Sanchez join the big club this year, because there are no pitchers near their caliber to replace them in the star pupil's chair.

Final note: Martin the Obsessive Giant Compulsive makes a good case that first-base prospect Travis Ishikawa -- one of the guys who went splat at AA last year -- still has promise. In fact, he compares quite well to Matt Williams at the same age. Read his obsessive-compulsive argument here.

Now You See Him...

2007-02-13T09:07:00.000-08:00

And now you don't. An eagle-eyed member of the McCovey Chronicles community noticed that Barry Bonds is no longer listed on the Giants' 40-man roster.

When the Giants announced Bonds's contract and made some official happy-time with Barry in late January, they also finally added his name to the list. Not so fast. The contract was subsequently rejected by the commissioner's office, and the drama continues. (If you haven't caught up on the latest contract twists, click here.)

This could be nothing. Just a bit of gamesmanship between the Giants and Bonds. They need each other desperately. Barry doesn't want to sit out the year, and no other team will have him. Without his bat, the Giants offense will sound like a Michael Apted short film. You know, "3 Up, 3 Down." OK, that was bad, not to mention obscure to all but the nerdiest of documentary film buffs.

I persevere, oblivious to your jeers and heckles. Which is more than we can say about a Bondsless Giant offense. His absence from the 40-man begs this question: If not Him, then Who? What are the alternatives?

1) Trade for a short-term fix, someone like Richie Sexson, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn, with only a year or two left on an expensive contract. This would mean trading a young pitcher, but probably not giving up the franchise as long as the Giants took the bloated contract off the other team's hands. It would not help the team get better, but it would let the Giants say they had "a cleanup hitter," whatever that means.

2) Find a longer-term solution, something really bold. A-Rod (but only if he doesn't opt out after this year or is willing to negotiate a new contract). Manny. Mark Teixiera. Trading for a big middle-of-the-order bat means giving up young pitching, which the team has refused to do.

3) Do nothing. Ray Durham bats cleanup. Give Todd Linden the left-field job. Give Fred Lewis more playing time. Resign the club to a miserable losing season and think of 2008 as the start-fresh year. To cheer up the depressed fan base, call up Tim Lincecum in May. Conduct a fire sale as soon as possible.

4) Put your forearms firmly against the seat-back in front of you and prepare for impact. Remember, your seat cushion is also a flotation device.

What The Truck

2007-02-12T10:16:00.000-08:00

Nothing tells us more about Boston's mania for all things Red Sock than Truck Day. For those of you unschooled, it's the day a semi leaves Fenway Pahk loaded with the team's geah for the warmer climes of Fort Myers, Florida. Spring training is nigh, even though the New England winter slouches grimly forward.

People actually show up to watch the truck. There is an official ceremony. Can you imagine the Giants trying something like this?

No, you can't. I mean, yes, you can, but then you imagine it going horribly awry like Crazy Crab or Rusty the Mechanical Man or quickly fading into obscurity as did the Portguese water dogs. Excuse me, you don't remember the Baseball Aquatic Retrieval Korps -- B.A.R.K., for you acronymically challenged -- a herd, um, gaggle, exultation, er, pack, that's it, PACK of dogs trained to jump into McCovey Cove to retrieve home runs?

The difference between having a Truck Day and not having one is an unbreachable divide. Giant fans will never gather outside Whatever Park to watch Matt Cain's jockstraps and Dave Groeschner's tubes of unguent toodle south, because we have better things to do in mid-February. [Editor's note: Ahem. Like blogging when you should be working?]

Yes, well, where was I? Ah -- East Coast fans would point to this scorn of an as-yet-theoretical Giant Truck Day as a sign of faulty bona fan fides; we point out that we are not cold miserable zealots.

Indeed, this whole East Coast/West Coast fandom thing, like hip-hop rivalry, is spun from the raw materials of our environments. After a week of rain, the sun is out today, and I plan on having a catch, as my Brooklynite college friend used to say -- another odd regionalism that struck my West Coast ears as quaint. But not as odd as standing in feels-like-25-degree weather and watching an 18-wheeler grind into second gear, headed for the I-95.

Question: Should the Giants institute a Truck Day, or something similar to generate that all-important pre-Spring Training buzz?

It Just Seems to Be His Turn

2007-02-09T09:55:00.000-08:00

One million Elvis Costello fans can't be wrong: it's time to turn our slightly-less-than-middle-aged fancy to young Matt Cain.

The past couple weeks have brought a plethora of contract-related news items about arbitration-age players. For example: instead of signing a one-year deal or entering arbitration with Brett Myers, the Phils signed the pitcher this week to a 3-year, $25 million contract. Myers is 26 and entering his fifth full year as a major leaguer, which means the Phils bought out his final two arbitration years and one year of free agency.

Here's a list of the rest of the arbitration-eligible players this winter; the Giants had none.

If you know how arbitration works, skip the rest of this paragraph. For readers who need a refresher: players with zero, one and two years of major league service have to take what their teams offer, which is often the major-league minimum salary. Players with three, four, and five years of service are under their team's control, but if they don't like their teams' offer they can take their case for a raise to an arbitrator.

With Noah Lowry signed to a long-term deal through his arb-eligible years, the next big question mark is Matt Cain. He goes into '07 with just over a year of service time. Unless his call-up in '05 bumps him up a year -- I don't think it does -- the Giants can simply pay him the major-league minimum in 2007 and '08. I call this "The D-Train Strategy," for reasons we'll see in a moment.

From '09 through '11 Cain will be arbitration-eligible. They could negotiate with him year by year, but it's much more likely they'll go the Lowry route and try to go long-term.

What kind of contract might Cain demand? After only a year-plus of major league service, Noah Lowry got a 4-year, $9.25 million contract with a $6.25 million club option for the fifth year. You might say that's not a good place to start a comparison because Cain is much better than Lowry, but (how soon we forget!) Lowry's first full year, 2005, was slightly better (36.5 VORP, 6.7 WARP) than Cain's first full year in 2006 (34.9 VORP, 6.4 WARP).

Ah, but the age difference. Lowry was 24, Cain 21. And what a difference a year or two makes in terms of salary structure. Are there other young pitchers we can use as comparison points?

How about Dontrelle Willis? Like Cain, he pitched his first full season at 21 and like Cain gave his team about 6 wins more than replacement level. (Actually, D-Train did that in only 27 starts. Wow.) That was three years ago. The Marlins never signed him to a long-term contract, and Dontrelle's salary has gone like this: $350,000 in '04, $380,000 in '05, $4.35 M in '06 -- a record for a first-time arb-eligible pitcher -- and $6.45 M for '07.

He could win $15 M next year, his final before free agency. Outlandish? Ha. For his final arb year, Carlos Zambrano is asking for a raise from $6.6 M to $15.5 M. The Cubs are offering $11 M. Whatever Zambrano gets, Dontrelle will surpass.

The cheapskate Marlins kept D-Train at the minimum as long as they could. It's not recommended as a way to build goodwill with a star player, but it's certainly within their rights. With the Giants track record, it's unlikely they'll go the D-Train route with Cain.

So let's assume the Giants try to use Lowry as a baseline for Cain, and Cain's agents argue that Cain's youth and star potential merit at least a small bump. OK, say the Giants, but he's no Dontrelle, who's been at worst above-league-average and at best near-Cy-Young in his four years. For a contract that gets them to Cain's free agency, the Giants want to pay somewhere between Noah and D-Train, adjusting for inflation (conventional wisdom holds that baseball sees an average 10% salary inflation per year; I'll go with that for the time being).

Here are the two players' pay scales so far, based on experience. (All data from Cot's Contracts). Figures including Lowry's signing bonus but not potential performance bonuses:

Rookie
DT: $240 K (est.)/ NL: $322 K
Year 2
DT: $350 K / NL: $1.385 M
Year 3
DT: $380 K / NL: $1.115 M
Year 4
DT: $4.35 M / NL: $2.25 M
Year 5
DT: $6.45 M / NL: $4.5 M
Year 6
DT: $15 M (est.) / NL: $6.25 M (club option)

Excluding rookie year minimums, Dontrelle should earn around $26 M by the end of his sixth year; Lowry about $17 M. Let's assume Noah earns some of his bonus money and kick that up to $20 M. For Cain, split the difference, then add 10% annual inflation for three years, and you get nearly $26 M.

Matt Cain, $26 million for the next five years? Sounds good to me.

I Cursed the Gloom That Set Upon Us

2007-02-08T12:56:00.000-08:00

Even with real games nearly two months away, I can usually take solace in February because our own amateur league gets back into gear. Nothing like getting out for the first time in months with one's mates to throw the ball on a sun-drenched weekend.

But the rain, welcomed by farmers, ski-lift operators and other Gothic types, only puts baseball that much farther out of reach. Sigh. I need a bit of cheering up. So instead of sober tales of arbitration payments, I reach for the sophomoric contest humor like a sot gropes for his screw-top bottle. Aahh. Much better.

Name the following people. Tiebreakers based on your creative description of which pair is most separated-at-birth.

Pair #1

Pair #2

Pair #3

Mays v. Aaron

2007-02-06T08:36:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's post brought one particular comment that deserves more attention: Lyle wrote that Bonds should break Hank Aaron's record for Willie Mays's sake, to help dispel any notion that because of the home-run tally Aaron was better than Mays. Lyle doesn't say this directly, but his comments assume some people would take Aaron's side in the debate. I'm not sure how many would -- at least among fans whose knowledge goes beyond a fondness for the shrieking cartoon baseball that signals SportsCenter's nightly home-run roundup -- so Lyle perhaps is a smidge guilty of the old straw-man setup.

Or is he?

Career stats
Mays v Aaron

HRs: 660 v. 755
RBI: 1903 v. 2207
BA: .302 v. .305
SB: 338 vs. 240
SB%: 76% v. 76%
OBP: .384 v. .374
SLG: .557 v. .555
Adj. OPS: 156 v. 155
RC/27: 7.86 v. 7.65

EqA: .328 v. .326

Once you get past the dingers and ribbies, Mays had a slight edge over Aaron in practically everything. Aaron created more total runs over his career, but a lineup full of Mayses would outscore a lineup of Aarons by two-tenths of a run. But for me the most interesting thing in these side-by-side comparisons is not that Mays was slightly better but that Aaron was nearly as good. I always thought Mays was better, hands-down. He was, but it's closer than I thought.

Then again, we haven't covered defense. Aaron by most accounts was a good, sometimes great right fielder. BP lists his career "rate2" for RF as 104. Mays was according to conventional wisdom perhaps the best center fielder of all time. BP lists his career Rate2 for CF as 104. Interpret that however you wish. Say hey -- did you know Willie made two appearances at SS and one at 3B? Looks like he even made a play at third.

***

P.M. SMALL PRINT UPDATE:

Now listening to Streetnote.org, a Web site full of street musicians. Some are bad, some are good, none are boring. Of note: Soul Lady of Santa Monica, Butchey Smith of Boston, Kyle of Madison, and the Hypnotic Brass Band of Chicago/LA.

Now reading Caetano Veloso's Tropical Truth, but probably not much longer. It's a personal memoir from one of the most exciting periods in modern musical history, the Brazilian tropicalia movement spearheaded by Veloso, Gilberto Gil, and others. (With this song as one of its anthems, tropicalia blended pop art, psychedelia, Brazilian musical elements, political protest and intellectual playfulness into a civic movement. Gil and Veloso were exiled in the late 1960s by the military dictatorship.)

As much as I love his music, Veloso's writing (at least in translated form) is a confusing hodgepodge of anecdotes, a revolving door of people, and a laundry list of ideologies and sub-ideologies. Certain passages are lovely, such as his depiction of his sleepy hometown, Santo Amaro, and anyone who wants a window into Brazilian pop and the formative years of one of the world's great musicians will get something from it, but mostly it feels like he's dumped his copious notes on us without enough shape, narrative or filter.

Happy Hammerin'

2007-02-05T10:19:00.000-08:00

It's the birthday of Hammerin' Henry Louis Aaron, born in 1934 in Mobile, Alabama. Happy birthday, Hank. Let's review:

12,364 ABs (2nd)
755 HRs (1st)
2,297 RBI (1st)
1,402 BBs (23rd)
1,383 Ks (67th)
.305 BA
.374 OBP
.555 SLG (27th)
+155 Adjusted OPS (23rd)

Question of the day: Do you want Barry Bonds to break the home-run record? What will you do if and when he does?

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: The Giants Web site finally lists Bonds on the 40-man roster, replacing Mike Matheny.

What's Cooler Than Being Cool?

2007-02-02T08:51:00.000-08:00

Whatever you may think of his managerial skills, Dusty Baker is still the coolest dude in baseball. Quotes Ludacris and John Lee Hooker in the same interview? Likes to cook at home with his wife? Goes fishing with Elvin Bishop and Charlie Musslewhite? Ice cold, baby.

***

P.M. UPDATE: The Mike Matheny retirement was no surprise, of course. But it should give all of us who shout encouragement (and otherwise) from the stands a moment of pause. Let's remember what these guys go through to entertain us. If you're a desk jockey like me, there's little chance your doctor will tap your shoulder one day and say, sorry, I know you're 35 and have five kids to raise, but you have to stop doing the only job you've ever known.

Before you play the smallest violin in the world for athletes who make millions, read this.

Yes, baseball is orders of magnitude different than football. But do you think Ellis Burks or Barry Bonds will be able to get out of bed without extreme knee pain in a few years? Or Jeff Bagwell will be able to lift his kids (if he has kids) with his arthritic right shoulder? These guys make millions because they're the absolutely best in the world at what they do in a business that generates billions upon billions of dollars. And they're the ones risking their arms, knees, backs, and brains, not the owners, not the GMs, not the managers and coaches.

The next time you hear someone in the stands cheering an opponent's injury -- even if it's a Dodger -- poke him in the ribs and tell him you're not down with that. Reading about Matheny, and how he probably won't even be able to exercise for six or nine months until his symptoms disappear, makes me more likely to cheer when my favorite players succeed and simply say "Go get 'em next time" when they fail. Other than good-natured heckling of the visiting outfielders from the bleachers, who am I to cuss out an athlete?

More to read: The NY Times writes today about Ted Johnson, former Patriots linebacker struggling with post-concussion syndrome.

Whistling Past the Graveyard

2007-02-01T08:36:00.000-08:00

Two weeks until pitchers and catchers report, or, as a recent New York Times headline puts it, until pitchers and Molinas report. (It's a piece on the Molina brothers and their hometown of Vega Alta, Puerto Rico; turns out Bengie owes his major-league career to his pushy mom. ¡Viva Boricua!)

Nice to have a little fluff these days. It actually gave me a wee frisson for the upcoming season. There will be bright moments, such as when the Cards come to town and Yadier and Bengie play against each other. (April 18-19.) Other things worthy of our anticipation:

* Rich Aurilia walks to the plate for his first home at-bat back in a Giant uniform. I expect a warm reception for one of the nicer guys to wear the french vanilla in recent years.

* Assuming Zito and Schmidt are the Giants and Dodgers opening-day starters, they'll match up against one another at Mays Field on Sunday, April 8. Ain't we got fun?

* The major-league debut of Tim Lincecum.

* Omar Fu, Part 3. It arrives from nowhere with little warning. You must remain alert at all times. Behold Part 1:

And Part 2.

And this magic trick, called La Pelota en la Camisa. ¡Increíble!

* Matt Cain's no-hitter. What the hell: both of them. Not possible? He had five starts last year in which he only gave up one hit (only one was a complete game), and another in which he gave up two over 8 innings. It's a matter of time, my friends.

* Barry Bonds breaks the all-time home-run record. He needs 22 more. I predict: Tuesday August 21, at home against the Cubs. Yes, I will stand and cheer.

***

P.M. UPDATE: Speaking of anticipation, you can't beat this for the pure joy of baseball fandom. Do people really talk like that in Minnesota? Oh you betcha. (Thanks to Bat-Girl for the link.)

I'm Sorry. So Sorry.

2007-01-30T09:00:00.000-08:00

My favorite supermarket stockboy sent me a love letter last night. It arrived late in the evening, like all heartfelt love letters do, and with resoluteness and seriousness of purpose it spelled out all the reasons I should love him, too.

I, and thousands of other Giant season-ticket holders, that is. Apparently the collective We -- we who disgorge our wallets to feed our nonsensical childish amusement in watching grown men cavort in tight french-vanilla polyester when there are a multitude of entertainment alternatives begging for our dollars -- have finally grown restless.

In an odd move, Peter Magowan feels compelled to explain the Barry Bonds news to us. (For those who don't feel like clicking through, a summary of the deal awaits you at the end of this post.)

While keeping to a measured tone, for successful businessmen know no other way even in the throes of passion, P-Mag apologizes for -- sorry, explains -- the Giants' decision to re-sign Bonds despite the amphetamine test and the Sweeney-under-a-bus reportage. It seems the latest Bonds imbroglios were final straws for many diehard Giant fans:

"I understand that this has been a particularly controversial and difficult decision and that there are strong opinions on both sides of the issue. I received letters, emails, phone calls and had many conversations with many of our season ticket holders during our Fanfest. I truly appreciate your passion for the Giants as we work through these complex issues. At the end of the day, I believe we have put together an exciting team for the coming season."

Oh, and by the way:

"You may also be interested to know that even with the signing of the 42-year-old Bonds, the average age of the 2007 Giants will be 30.7 years versus 32.7 in 2006. So we have gotten younger and presumably healthier as we stated we would try to do when the 2006 season ended."

And look, we're still a baseball team, just like we promised! None of that hockey or cricket or jai-alai or, G_d forbid, Moneyball that other teams try to pass off as America's Past Pastime.

The Magowan letter also cites the "allegations against Barry" in the NY Daily News article, but it doesn't mention amphetamines or Mark Sweeney specifically. "All of the facts have not been accurately portrayed." Which facts, we don't know, but Magowan writes that "clubhouse chemistry" (no pun intended, we'll assume) won't be affected.

It's a fascinating document, full of forthrightness up to a point and, beyond that point, total corporate obfuscation. It stops well short of naked apology, but with obvious self-interest it pleads the Giants case in a context intended to placate long-term fans ("signing Barry to a one-year contract helped us pursue a long-term strategy toward getting the club back on track").

You may not like it, dear fans, but it's for your own good.

It also uses, word-for-word, a paragraph of text that was attributed to Brian Sabean in the official press release announcing the deal. If you had one shred of hope that this type of exercise wasn't highly vetted, processed and sterilized, please shred it. This doesn't mean such banalities aren't worth reading. On the contrary, like Kremlin tea leaves and Alan Greenspan's koans, it's always instructive to parse shades of non-meaning. The Giants didn't have to say anything, and that they did tells us a lot about the fan reaction in recent weeks.

Your 2007 San Francisco Giants: Savor the Grim Inevitability!

If you had to boil all this down to a couple sentences, it would be: "Sorry about this, but we really had no choice. Barry's here for one more year, but you, dear season ticket holder, are here forever. Right?"

***

Terms of the deal: One year, $15.8 million base salary, $5.8 M deferred until 2008. (I've recorded his '07 salary as $10 M on my roster list to the right.) $4.2 M in incentives deferred beyond 2008. No entourage on team payroll or allowed on the premises. If other provisions were included in the contract, they weren't revealed yesterday.

Another Sign of the Impending Apocalypse

2007-01-29T08:27:00.000-08:00

Jeff Weaver is getting a raise. (If you count incentives.) Not everyone thinks it's such a bad idea.

Meanwhile, Todd Helton could soon be a Red Stocking, which at least in the short-term would make me feel a lot better. Even a Helton in decline is a frightening proposition. Swapping Helton for Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez and prospects, as one report has it, would not better the Rockies in '07.

But it would free up a lot of Colorado's payroll in the coming years and add more blue-chip prospects to what could already be the strongest farm system in baseball. Which circles us back to the debate stemming from my last two posts: will the Rockies be any better off because they, like the D-Backs, have amassed some of the strongest, deepest young talent in the game? As sayhey rightly noted in the previous post's comments, there are many ways of getting it done. It's unclear that Colorado, playing in oddball conditions at home that turn its sluggers into 90-lb. weaklings on the road, will ever find the right formula.

The team that seems poised to make the best of both worlds -- a strong farm system and big-market bucks to lure free agents -- is, and may the Lord strike me down for typing this, the Dodgers.

THIS JUST IN:

Barry Bonds is in town taking his physical and should sign his contract imminently. The Chronicle reports the financial terms -- $15.8 million base with incentives that could add up to $20 million -- remain the same. But Bonds's entourage will no longer have access to the team clubhouse. With Bonds officially on the team, someone's about to be kicked off the 40-man roster. Any guesses?

The Plan, Part 2

2007-01-26T10:24:00.001-08:00

Yesterday I asked: "Do the Giants have a plan, is it good, and are they sticking to it?"

I forgot to answer the middle part. Remember, my working theory is that the team has made younger, healthier pitching the most immediate priority, and until the farm system starts producing hitters, most of the offense will come from without.

By the way, I've fashioned a 27-man roster of those most likely to travel north on opening day. Average age of pitchers: 28.1 years. Average age of position players: 33.2 years. Obviously those numbers will change a bit depending on which two players don't make the squad. (I'll discuss those pending roster decisions in a later post.)

Asking the middle question -- is the plan good? -- begs a further question: Compared to what? (Sock it to me!)

If you've got good scouts, no one except George Steinbrenner would argue that homegrown talent is much preferable. To paraphrase Crash Davis, spending tons of money on mercenary free agents without developing a farm system isn't just boring, it's fascist.

So good on the Giants at least for trying to home-school half the population. As a foil to the Giants' approach, take Arizona. (Please.) The Diamondbacks decided to farm-raise hitters first and foremost, and with excellent scouting, they're poised to have a homegrown murderer's row into the next decade. With luck and health, we'll be watching Noah Lowry, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum versus Carlos Quentin, Steven Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young for years to come.

If you believe that 90% of the game is pitching and defense -- and I hope you don't, because it isn't -- the Giants have the advantage because they emphasize pitching.

Health-wise, however, pitchers are far more fragile. If you've never heard of TINSTAAPP, please familiarize yourself. In that regard, prioritizing pitchers is fraught with more peril.

Ah, but if it works, the cash benefits are greater. I may be wrong because I don't have numbers in front of me, but my spidey-sense tells me good pitching is far more valuable (read: expensive) than good hitting. Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Jason frickin' Marquis. And that's not even good pitching. Sure, pitching, hitting, fielding: if it's part of professional baseball these days, it's expensive. But rolling your own pitching and using the cost savings to buy hitters might be, might be, the better way to go if you can keep the pitchers healthy and -- oh yeah -- they're also good. I'm willing to consider counterpoints, though.

Fer crissakes, enough dithering: Is the Giants' plan good or what?

I beg you, a fine deliberation with one's estimable malo-self cannot be rushed. If you believe pitching is the most valuable part of the game, yes. If you think it's better to invest scouting and development resources in position players more likely to have elbow ligaments at the age of 30, then no.

As a Lefty Malo, I love nothing more than young pitchers figuring out their craft. I also love low-scoring games. Aesthetically, the Giants plan is good. Yes. If those low-scoring games tend to finish 3 to 1 or 2 to zero in favor of the non-Giants, maybe not so much.

Of course, the best plan is to do whatever it takes to get into the playoffs as much as possible and win a ring. Which is why from 1997 until 2003, no one questioned the Giants much.

What's The Plan

2007-01-25T09:10:00.000-08:00

With one major off-season question left to answer -- Will He or Won't He? -- the '07 Giants are close to set. Once the Bonds contract is signed and sealed (and, according to the press coverage that follows, notarized by one of Satan's many functionaries), the final opening day roster spots will boil down to 5th starter, 5th outfielder, a few bullpen shenanigans, and whether Ryan Klesko and Mark Sweeney can co-exist in one universe.

Or Bonds and Sweeney, for that matter. Oh, I forgot. There are no hard feelings, it was all a misunderstanding. Mm-kay.

Please note: I'm still skeptical the Bonds contract impasse is but a formality, and I didn't need Murray Chass of the New York Times to convince me.

But today I speak of longer horizons, amigos mios. Today I ask: Do the Giants have a plan, is it good, and are they sticking to it? This is not an uncommon topic round these parts, and as you glimpse the headline that trumpets the return of Russ Ortiz, it's easy to throw back your head and Charlie Brown-like let fly a big "AAAUUUGGGGHH!" (Was Peanuts not simply a kid's version of Munch's Scream and other existential nightmares? Examine navel and discuss.)

Before we stumble away into an eternal gulag of despair, we need a sober assessment of longer-term goals. A quick rewind:

As the 2006 season ground to an unseemly halt, all the big brass buttons told us, OK, no more, the Bondscentric universe with its orbiting satellites of veteran mediocrity has failed. It was a big slobbery confessional. Younger, faster, healthier was the new mantra. The word "Rebuild" was conspicuously absent.

Among positional players, the mantra has proven hollow, though, wait...technically swapping Dave Roberts for Steve Finley is getting younger, right?

Sorry. Signing Roberts, Aurilia, Klesko and Molina and resigning Feliz and Durham is no youth movement. Some of us would have liked to see Todd Linden and Kevin Frandsen plugged in as starters this year. With Bonds missing games due to knee pain, back pain, day-after-night pain, and perhaps the pain of squeezing his neck into a dress shirt for his court appearances -- not to mention Roberts (hopefully) chained to the bench against left-handed pitchers -- Linden should get at least 300 at bats. Four hunded is not a stretch. As for Frandsen, well, we'd all like to see what he can do, but like Linden he's not exactly going to rot on the bench.

So youth movement in '07? Not so much on the offensive side, and let's be honest -- for a few more years this team is beholden to the free agent and trade markets to bring in big bats. There's an outside chance a couple current farmhands will soon swing solid major-league lumber, but one of them, Eddie Martinez-Esteve, seems destined to DH in the American League.

The mantra makes sense on the pitching side, and here I think the Giants not only have a plan but have done quite well to stick to it. But, you say, so upset your voice trembles and your fists shake, R-r-r-r-uss Ort-t-t-tiz! $126 million for a Zito in d-d-d-d-decline!

I'll address those moves in a moment, but here's why at heart the plan is operational: Not one young pitcher was traded away this winter. (Knock on wood.) Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Noah Lowry, and Tim Lincecum all remain. (Lincecum can't technically be traded for one year after the draft, but teams can skirt that rule with the "player to be named later.")

Even lesser lights such as Brian Wilson and Kevin Correia, both expected to be key bullpenners this year, have stayed put. Note that Tim Worrell retired and the Giants did not leap to replace him with a proven veteran. Armando Benitez could be gone as soon as he shows he's healthy.

As for Ortiz, yes, his inclusion on the roster could block the progress of Sanchez, who seems to be the other candidate for 5th starter. If Ortiz surprises, then another year in the bullpen won't hurt Sanchez and might even help him refine his secondary pitches, which could use a lot of refinement. If Ortiz blows, then Sanchez becomes 5th starter -- expect a steep learning curve.

The Zito contract was an overspend. Perhaps even the sign of a desperate general manager, as Keith Law argues. But for at least the first few years it gives the Giants a good (if not great) starter and, with Matt Morris on board for only two more years, it won't block the arrival of Tim Lincecum. In fact a healthy Morris will be a valuable trade chip, seeing how he's "only" making $9 million in each of the next two years. Think the Mets wouldn't be tempted to trade Lastings Milledge for him if he's pitching well and, say, Pedro Martinez doesn't return from shoulder surgery on time this summer?

Despite the handwringing viz-a-viz Zito, there are enough countervailing views out there to make the contract seem like a necessary luxury. It's also possible that by the time his $18 million annual payments kick in ('07:$10M, '08:$14.5M, '09:$18.5M, '10:$18.5M, '11:$18.5M, '12:$19M, '13:$20M), the team's stadium debt service will be low enough and revenues high enough that the contract won't be a budget constraint at all.

On the pitching mound, the Giants have a plan and seem to be executing it well. In the batter's box, they're hamstrung by their own incompetence at raising homegrown hitters, but smart, creative moves could help fill the gap quickly.

This year will be crucial in holding them to their promise. If the team sinks out of contention, trading useful but replaceable veterans (Winn, Feliz, Durham, Vizquel, Morris) for good prospects should be a no-brainer. Drafting the best available hitter or two this summer, players who project to be in the majors by 2009 or 2010, should be a priority.

Finally, the Bonds situation is a mess of the Giants' own making. To some extent it couldn't be helped. The Giants whiffed on other big names and, to avoid an offense that would have advance scouts standing next to one another at the urinals and cackling, "Beware the Connecticut Defenders!", they went crawling back to His Barriness. It's all rather sordid, and whatever your opinion of Bonds and his treatment in the public sphere, it's hard to deny the Giants could have handled it a lot better.

It's possible that information from the ongoing exploration of l'affaire BALCO and baseball's drug habit will circle the heads of Magowan & Co. for a while, perhaps settling to rest there like flies in a stockyard. Perhaps Barry himself, backed finally against the wall, will be the source of that information, which means the Giants' biggest short-term question could become a long-term worry: Will He or Won't He?

In Your Ear

2007-01-24T08:12:00.000-08:00

Did you know that Baseball Prospectus has a radio show? Now you do. It's weekly, and it's also podcast. You can subscribe to it through iTunes and download it here. No, it's not all wonky statistics. The most recent was a relaxed, long-form interview with long-time sports commentator Chuck Wilson, whom I'd never heard before, and it was like sitting in on a barstool conversation between three curious, intelligent guys (Wilson and BP Radio's two hosts, Will Carroll and the other guy whose name I forget). It's the antidote to typical sports-talk radio.

UPDATE:

Lee Panas of Tiger Tales has added defensive rankings for right fielders. Good news for the Giants: Randy Winn is fifth. Here's how the rest of the Giants stand:

Bonds LF (23rd)
Roberts CF (1st....among LFs)
Winn RF (5th)
Aurilesko 1B (n/a)
Durham 2B (25th)
Vizquel SS (3rd)
Feliz 3B (3rd)

For a discussion of defensive metrics and what Panas is up to, click here.

Ranking Full Stop

2007-01-19T11:25:00.001-08:00

With a slippery slope of a season staring Giants fans in the face, the one main crampon of hope is the Giants young pitching. (If you prefer the ever-popular train wreck metaphor, I won't protest. For crampon, please substitute wrist strap or air bag. You're now on your own.)

For me, anticipation for the '07 campaign is mainly attached to the names Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Sadler, and Lincecum. I'll include Lowry, too, though one more bad year and he'll have us thinking "one-month wonder" with his ability to pitch well in August and not so much otherwise.

If you want to throw the 28-year-old Barry Zito into the young pitcher bin, OK, fine. But it's really the homegrown guys I'm talking about, the only real success of the farm system in recent years.

Baseball America and others annually rank farm systems; it might surprise you that BA placed the Giants as high as 11th earlier this decade. Generally they're middle-of-the-pack, clocking in at 18 last year.

Just out of curiosity, and because a debate over Ryan Klesko's comeback potential thrills me as much as flossing, I started tallying the top-10 lists of Kevin Goldstein, former BA prospect expert who jumped to Baseball Prospectus last year. To see how the Giants stack up this year, I've assigned a point value to each of his prospect categories: Excellent, Very Good, Good, and Average.

Remember, not every member of a top-ten prospect list will succeed in the majors, let alone receive a call-up. As I wrote about last year, at any given moment a farm system likely contains four valuable major-league players and four semi-fungible bench/bullpen types. That means the top of the top-10 list is far more valuable than the bottom. So I've assigned these point values:

Excellent = 6 pts
Very Good = 4 pts
Good = 2 pts
Average = 1 pt

With that, I'm tallying scores for each team as Goldstein publishes his lists. Three of the top four systems are in the NL West, and sad to say none are the San Francisco Giants. Colorado gets 36 points, the Dodgers 31 (tied with the Mets), and Arizona has 30. Of 21 teams, the Giants tie for 10th with 22 points, still solidly middle-of-the-pack. The score was mainly hurt by their double-A hitters. After breakouts in San Jose, Ishikawa, Schierholtz and Martinez-Esteve did a faceplant in Connecticut (EME because of injury.) EME and Schierholtz are now listed as average prospects, Ishikawa not at all.

Goldstein still has nine teams to go. His Giants' list is here.

[Sorry -- I just realized the list is subscriber-only. In condensed form: Excellent: Lincecum; Very good: Villalona, Sanchez; Good: Burriss; Average: EME, Schoop, Lewis, Schierholtz, Sadler, McBryde.]

This little system I've devised is arbitrary layered atop arbitrary. Call it a lasagna of arbitrariness, if you must. But is it a good thumbnail gauge of where the Giants stand prospect-wise? Are the numerical values I've assigned reasonable? Perhaps "excellent" prospects are so valuable they should get 8 points, double that of a "very good."

Or perhaps you think Goldstein is a quack. He's taken (and like a gentleman, answered) criticism lately that he gives too much favor to raw, young, high-ceiling guys. Here's his explanation:

Let’s assume that an Excellent rating also means "potential impact player." While it’s certainly true that more AAA players at any point in time will MAKE the majors than Low A players, I would argue that true impact players are far more evenly distributed, if not even more so at the lower levels.

Cream rises to the crop quickly, maybe even more so these days, which is why many top prospects have come from the last two draft years. They seem almost too young to rank so high at times, but I bet a good number of them lose their eligibility for the lists next year with significant stints in the big leagues.

Any and all feedback on this back-of-the-napkin rating system is much appreciated. Fire away.

Brain Damage

2007-01-18T09:01:00.001-08:00

Today's New York Times has a chilling story about links between repeated concussions and depression, Alzheimer's-like symptoms, and suicide. It centers on the story of Andre Waters, a former Philadelphia Eagle defensive back who committed suicide last year at the age of 44. At one point in his career, Waters told a reporter he "stopped counting" the number of concussions he'd sustained once the tally reached 15.

Pathological examination of Waters' brain tissue showed degeneration akin to that of an 85-year-old man with Alzheimer's disease.

The level of consistent head-smashing is far greater in football than baseball, but any Giant fan immediately thinks of Mike Matheny. It's obvious though not official he isn't coming back; a story like this should remove any doubt. Get out while you can, Mike. And anyone who plays sports or perhaps more importantly coaches youth sports should take heed -- it's not just getting your bell rung.

The Times story -- written by Alan Schwarz, who usually covers baseball -- also mentions (too briefly, in my opinion) that the NFL, which has a "mild traumatic brain injury committee," has consistently underplayed the effects of concussions by conducting studies that "went against just about every study on sports concussions published in the last 20 years," according to the former college football player who spurred the examination of Waters' brain tissue.

Now there's a tantalizing thread for reporters to follow. If indeed there's been a "Big Tobacco"-like cover-up, it makes the Giants' willingness to let go of the machismo and acknowledge the severity of multiple concussions not just admirable, but perhaps revolutionary in the way professional athletes are treated.

***

UPDATE: A well-informed reader just informed me that ESPN The Magazine did an in-depth look last fall at the NFL's concussion policy and the doctor in charge of its Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Committee. It's scathing. The thread that I wrote earlier reporters should follow? ESPN's Peter Keating followed it, and it seems to lead to gross negligence on the part of the NFL.

Return of the Follies

2007-01-17T14:02:00.001-08:00

Of Draper, that is. Our favorite MLB.com hack comes up with such ridiculous turns of phrase I cannot help but document them. He's an easy target, sure, but I take perverse pleasure in highlighting the malapropisms, the tortured analogies, the absurdly mixed metaphors.

So without further ado I give you the first entry in the 2007 Draper Follies:

There's a new Giants TV series airing next baseball season: "Two Men and a Kid."

The cast? Shortstop Omar Vizquel, 39, second baseman Ray Durham, 35, and the promising sprite of those middle-aged middle infielders, 22-year-old Kevin Frandsen.

It's not a sitcom, so don't expect a comedy of errors from this acrobatic troupe of sure-handers, starring starters Vizquel and Durham, with Frandsen -- in his second season -- ready to fill in at a variety of cameo positions.

Draper is off to a fine start. Just a week ago, he referred to Rich Aurilia as a "floater," which at best means a drowned corpse that has risen to the surface. There are other definitions, too.

******

SMALL PRINT UPDATE

Now listening to The Orchestra Super Mazembe's propulsive East African beat and sweet harmonies. I bought this album on the strength of one song, "Shauri Yako," which I can't stop singing even though I have no idea what they're saying. A few tracks grow irritating because of overly-punctuated nasal vocals, but on the whole it's a gem.

Now reading The Corrections again after a month-long break. I'll finish it someday, I swear. It's not for lack of interest; I didn't want to drag the hardcover around New Zealand, then the holidays came, etc etc. I'm impressed. The only other novelist I've read who can sustain such intense tragicomedy both in a grand arc and in every microscopic detail is Salman Rushdie.

The Things That You're Li'ble To Read in the Bible

2007-01-16T10:10:00.001-08:00

Yes indeed, the 2007 PECOTA projections are here. These are the numbers the propellorheads at Baseball Prospectus crunch to predict -- or more accurately, to estimate within a range of likely outcomes -- how both major and minor leaguers will fare in the upcoming campaign.

I don't remember what PECOTA stands for. There are other projection systems with fun acronyms: ZIPS and CHONE, for example. I don't know which is better. All are to be taken with some skepticism, of course, as many of you point out whenever I post numbers you don't agree with.

They tell all you chillen the devil's a villain /
But it ain't necessarily so

When these systems tell us that, say, Barry Zito will have an ERA over 4 in 2007, it's up to us to ask if there are any extenuating circumstances (other than "he's cool" or "he's a winner") that would put the projection to shame. Alan Schwarz of the New York Times says yes: moving from the AL to the NL tends to lower a pitcher's ERA nearly a full run. Ken Arneson of Catfish Stew says Zito's pitch selection and mechanics make him an "outlier" -- stat speak for someone who confounds general trends.

I'm exhausted talking about Zito, but I'll say one more piece: the Giants haven't had a bonafide chick magnet since J.T. Snow left. With his artsy prentensions and hipster/bachelor hair, BZ's target female will skew a little older than J.T., who specialized in pre-teen girls who dreamed of growing older and dating the high school's starting quarterback. But make no mistake: the Giants will feature his buns in as many marketing campaigns as possible. (Which may not be directed entirely at the female fan population.)

You don't think the marketeers think of this? Obviously you don't sit in the bleachers, where girls up to their mid-twenties -- maybe even older, depending on their alcohol intake -- comment loudly on players' backsides. (Mom! Stop that!) You know those pink hats aimed at the casual female fan? I predict a deluge of pink and other femmy frilly swag to help cash in on the girls who surf into the Giants Dugout and past the concession stands on a wave of Zito-inspired estrogen.

(You can already order a Zito 75 jersey, but not in pink. Yet.)

OK, back to the matter at hand. The murkiest field of all baseball statistics is defense, with a range of systems all measuring a slice. Since I don't know what to believe when it comes to defensive ratings, this approach seems as good as any: average out all the rankings into one number.

How do the Giants fare in these defensive metarankings compiled by Lee Panas? Pedro Feliz is tied for third among 3B. Ray Durham is fifth-worst at 2B. Omar Vizquel is third at SS (and Rafael Furcal sixth!). Dave Roberts ranks first....among left-fielders (he'll be playing center for the Giants). Barry Bonds is sixth-worst. Caveat: Lee only considers 2006 rankings in his metarankings. So no Ryan Klesko.

I take that gospel whenever it's pos'ble /
But with a grain of salt

Putting aside quibbles over the merits of Vizquel v. Furcal (see comments of yesterday's post), the Giants' strong left-side infield defense will be good for Barry Zito, who as noted by the Catfish Stew article referenced above is very good at inducing jam-shot grounders to third with an inside fastball.

Check out Lee's site Tiger Tales which I've added to my blogroll, for his ongoing defensive rankings. And remember, it ain't necessarily so.

N.L. West Head to Head, Part 4: The Evil Dead

2007-01-15T10:06:00.001-08:00

Before we jump into the details, I have to say this: The Dodgers will suck this year, even if they [*biting tongue*] finish ahead of the Giants, even if they [*flagellating self with red-hot electric cables*] win the World Series. In the small print of Grigori Perelman's proof of the Poincaré Conjecture was this note: Sunt Dodgeri, ergo horribili. The formula, boiled down for lesser minds, goes something like this: [[AB+OPS/81]/.300x - 35(team ERA)/Kgs of Lasorda]]. You could look it up.

Finally proven after a century of brain-sweat, this postulate will always trump the possibility that, say, Chad Billingsley might already be better than Matt Cain. Remember, it doesn't matter what you or I think. Do the math.

The projected lineups

L.A.

SS Furcal
CF Pierre
1B Nomah
2B Kent
LF Gonzo
RF Ethier
C Martin
3B Betemit

G's

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
1B Aurilia/Klesko
LF Bonds
2B Durham
RF Winn
C Molina
3B Feliz

Comments: Juan Pierre? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA -- oops, bunt single. I hate that guy. Still, Pierre was the most ridiculed free agent signing this winter until, um, well, someguywhogot$126million. Both Pierre and Furcal are career .350 OBP guys, but Pierre hasn't cracked .330 since 2004. Still the Furcal/Pierre combo is younger and thanks to Furcal has a lot more power than the Giants' 1-2 punch. What's more, against LHP Dave Roberts won't (or shouldn't) be in the lineup. In the middle of the lineup, L.A. is relying on health above all else. Any of the Nomah-Kent-Gonzo trio could miss significant stretches of time, though the same is true of the Giants middle. Health aside, the Bonds advantage is neutralized by Nomah's advantage over the Aurilesko combo. Call it a wash. Back end of the order: Martin at 23 already better than Molina, Ethier at 24 better than Winn, Betemit at 26 has upside beyond Feliz's proven mediocrity. (And he's simply keeping the spot warm for Andy LaRoche, who raked in AAA last year as a 22-year-old.)

Rating: O at SF, O at LA.

The projected rotations

L.A.

Schmidt
Penny
Lowe
Wolf
Kuo/Billingsley

S.F.

Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Ortiz/Sanchez

Comments: I argued strongly last year the Giants should beware of paying Schmidt big money over multiple years. But the way the winter orgy proceeded, I would've been happy if the Giants gave him the contract he signed with L.A. Here's his ZIPS projection:

192 IP / 172 H / 22 HR / 77 BB / 183 K / 3.94 ERA

His projected ERA is better than any Giant starter. Will he outperform Zito? It will come down to his health. Over 35 healthy starts, yes. With nagging injuries like those that hampered him in '05 and somewhat last year, no. Penny and Lowe will be good to very good -- if Matt Morris strains real hard, he could have a Derek Lowe-ish season. Penny has Cy Young stuff and Delmon Young maturity; I'll still pick him to have a better season than Morris or Lowry. Post-TJ surgery Randy Wolf could be a great pick-up, but ZIPS isn't optimistic (92 IP, 4.89 ERA). The Dodgers have enough pitching depth to replace him in May if need be, but for now let's assume they let him and his $8 M salary go as far as possible. Part of L.A.'s depth is Billingsley, whose half-year in '06 excited L.A. fans as much as Cain's '05 tickled us up north. BP prospect guru Kevin Goldstein wrote this recently: "Billingsley had an up-and-down rookie campaign, but the pitcher you saw in August, when he went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts, is the real deal and he's poised for a breakout with his No. 1 starter potential."

So, Zito over Schmidt (barely), Cain even with Penny, Lowe over Morris, Lowry over Wolf, and LA's fifths over SF's.

Rating: N at SF, N at LA.

Projected Bullpens: Saito did his best Aki Otsuka impression last year, coming out of nowhere to close with emphasis, striking out 12 batters per 9 innings. Right behind him is the massive Jonathan Broxton (6'3", 288 lbs.), closer-in-waiting and only 22 years old. The rest of their bullpen is Beimelish and Tomkovian, but the Giants have no answer for L.A.'s late-inning combo. Unless Benitez makes a remarkable comeback and the youngsters step up, the Giants will have the worst bullpen in the division.

Rating: OO at LA and SF.

Outfield defense: Pierre and Roberts are carbon-copy, fleet of foot with arms of rag. Gonzo in left -- I'm stunned, but BP's "Rate2" metric says he's been above-average five of the past six years. As a mere 39-year-old pup, Gonzo merits a leg up on Bonds. I'll give Winn the nod in RF until we see Ethier play more. Slight ADV: SF. Infield: BP says Kent is about average and Durham well below. Nomah not so good, but Aurilesko will not be so good, either. Furcal is better than Omar, and Feliz better than Betemit. Slight ADV: LA. Bench: Gonzo's heir apparent, Matt Kemp, is the key. He could platoon against lefties and force Gonzo to the bench. His ceiling is higher than Todd Linden, but he's only 22 and may not be ready. Also: Jason Repko, Ramon Martinez, Marlon Anderson, James Loney, Olmedo Saenz.

Final comment: The Dodgers clearly have a better lineup than the Giants, with young prospects Kemp and LaRoche waiting in the wings, a much better bullpen, and can at least match the Giants' strong rotation. Their defense won't be any worse, and they have a decent bench. Adjusting for the Poincaré postulate, the Giants will win 15 of 18.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: I regret to inform the readership that MC Hammer's Baseball Time! is no longer on the blogroll. His last update was June 2006. If you can't update your blog at least as often as "Can't Touch This" is played at someone's Bar Mitzvah, you don't deserve a link. What you gonna do about that, Hammer?!

N.L. West Head to Head, Part 3: The D-Backs

2007-01-12T15:04:00.000-08:00

I just had a craving for Jon Miller. His voice, that is. On my radio. El Papa Malo reports from the freezing north that L'il Flemm said on KNBR that Tim Lincecum is as good as Cain right now. Remember, Flemm is an employee of the Giants. But he's also not prone to exaggeration or shameless marketing drivel. I don't care if my dad misheard. I don't care if it's bloodless propaganda planted by Larry Baer. Suddenly, I don't need any artificial stimulants to pep me up for the season. Let's play two!

But first, as Jon Miller likes to say, here come the Di-ya-mond-backs:

The projected lineups

D-B's

LF Byrnes
2B Hudson
3B Tracy
1B Jackson
CF C. Young
RF Quentin
SS Drew
C Snyder

G's

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
1B Aurilia/Klesko
LF Bonds
2B Durham
RF Winn
C Molina
3B Feliz

Comments: I'm not sure who leads off for Arizona. Byrnes did last year, sometimes. But he really shouldn't be starting against RHP (.287 OBP in '06). If not Byrnes, maybe Hudson or Drew. Maybe Young. The Young-Quentin-Drew triad could be awesome very soon, with Jackson and Tracy and Hudson strong complements. Definitely scary in '08, but still unsettled right now. That said, the raw talent is already head and shoulder s above the Giants. If they're not as good as S.F. to start the year, chances are they will be by the All-Star break.

Rating: N at SF, O at Ariz.

The projected rotations

S.F.

Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Ortiz/Sanchez

Ariz.

Webb
R. Johnson
L. Hernandez
D. Davis
E. Gonzalez

Comments: Webb and Zito have each won a Cy Young, but I'll take Webb any day over Zito. Unit or Cain: Hall of Famer on the way down, or bright young thing ascendant? Given Johnson's health (back surgery this fall -- not trivial), I'll put even money on Cain besting Johnson this year. That's not what ZIPS says, though:

RJ: 223 IP / 202 H / 27 HR / 54 BB / 196 K / 3.71 ERA
MC: 193 IP / 167 H / 24 HR / 87 BB / 174 K / 4.01 ERA

Pretty close -- which speaks just as well to Cain's precocious talent at the age of 22 as it does to Johnson's top-level longevity at 43.

ZIPS is also predicting Livan will get hammered in the desert, with an ERA nearly a run higher than Morris. He'll throw a lot more innings, but the D-Backs will need quality, not just quantity from their #3 starter. Davis/Lowry: I can't find ZIPS on Davis. Lowry's young enough to rebound from an '06 in which his strikeout rate went way down and his walk rate didn't change. He wasn't fooling many batters. Davis is 31 and got knocked around last year after two good years with the Brewers. Pitching at the BOB won't help. Now with Russ Ortiz in the mix, the $380,000 question is how good does he need to be to keep Sanchez out of the rotation? The cynic in me says 'Not very good.'

Rating: G at SF, N at AZ.

Projected Bullpens: With Tim Worrell retired, the Giant bullpen will rely even more on youth. Pencil Correia into the set-up role, perhaps as the first option to close if Benitez is traded/injured/beaten to death by his teammates. Wilson, Hennessey, Sadler, Kline, perhaps J-Sanch. Arizona has either youneverknow Jose Valverde or Jorge Julio to close, plus a lot of young guys. A total crapshoot.

Rating: N at SF and AZ.

Outfield defense: C. Young is apparently the dog's bollocks. Byrnes is more than adequate on the corner and really fun to watch run into things, Quentin is an unknown. Until the D-Back kids prove themselves, however, I'll give slight ADV: SF. Infield: Hudson is All-World at 2B, much to Webb's heavy-sinker delight. Drew got a just above-average rating from BP, which also says Tracy and Jackson are subpar at the corners. ADV: SF. Bench: Is Craig Counsell still around? No? How about Quintin McCracken?

Final comment: For Arizona as currently configured, it comes down to young hitters and one old pitcher. If the Unit hits to his statistical projections, their first three is at least the equal of the Giants'. If the young hitters mature quickly, they'll have a potent lineup. But I see them truly busting out in '08 a la Reyes/Wright with the Mets in '06. I say the Giants win 11 of 18.

Will Worth Reading

2007-01-12T08:35:00.001-08:00

BP's Will Carroll publishes his first take on the Bonds amphetamine test. It's worth reading. If you don't have a subscription, I'll excerpt a couple paragraphs -- perhaps more than I should but Carroll's perspective is important to keep the discussion from spinning into hysteria -- and I strongly encourage you to subscribe.

Carroll speculates that the source of the positive test was unlikely a pure "greenie" but more of a sophisticated nutritional supplement such as AMP. It's legal, easily available, has a BALCO connection, and has questionable ingredients.

"AMP was found to contain substances that were very much like amphetamines. In a May 2006 article, Amy Shipley of the Washington Post talked with Don Catlin, a steroid researcher who works with WADA and was involved in the BALCO case, about AMP. Catlin found that the active ingredient was not listed on the label. Methylhexaneamine, like many of Arnold's substances, was a re-concocted version of a previously existing compound, this time one invented in the 1940s as a nasal decongestant. Catlin described the drug as similar to amphetamines and ephedrine."

Carroll writes:

"Why would Bonds take these substances? One source suggested that it wasn't performance enhancement, but weight management. Amphetamines and similar substances are often used in weight loss and weight management. The appetite-suppressant effect would have helped Bonds in two ways. First, his knees were under a lot of pressure carrying additional weight. The knee problems were part of a cycle--Bonds couldn’t work out with his normal intensity so he gained weight. When he gained weight, his knees hurt more. Add in that supplements like AMP are specifically designed to help "cut"--take off body fat and water weight--and there’s a twofold effect before we even get to possible performance enhancement."

Finally, Carroll says it's "laughable" that the Giants didn't know about the test results. The Giants released a statement last night saying this was the first they'd heard of it because of the drug program's privacy rules; Carroll says teams always know because they need to be in the administrative loop.

Bonds on Speed

2007-01-11T10:06:00.001-08:00

The New York Daily News has a scoop today that Barry Bonds failed a test last year for amphetamines and blamed it on something he got from Mark Sweeney.

That's the jist of the News report. Shitstorm to follow.

What do I think? To keep this brief and get back to my day job, I'll write a civic resolution that you can frame and hang on your wall.

IF Bonds indeed failed an amphetamine test, and;

IF the substance he took was in fact illegal, not just a cold medicine or something else that can trigger positives, and;

IF when confronted with this fact, he wilfully tried to blame Mark Sweeney, whether or not Sweeney actually gave Barry anything;

THEN the Giants should rip up the alleged $15.8 million-plus-incentives contract they're haggling over with Bonds agent and say, sorry, Barry, no más, no matter how much he helps the team by hitting home runs and drawing fans.

I believe this is the first time I've ever come down on the get-rid-of-Bonds side for non-baseball reasons. Until now, throughout the years of drama, I've always said if he's healthy enough to contribute, keep him. Pay him lots of money. He's worth it.

If this were a failed amphetamine test, period, I'd maintain that stance. Under baseball's drug-testing rules, failing it for the first time is not cause for suspension (or even public acknowledgement). Being a jerk and prima donna and thoroughly unpleasant while doing your job is not a firing offense in baseball. (Sorry, life's not fair.) Taking steroids and other nasty bits to boost his career was not a firing offense when Bonds allegedly did it. If he's indicted by the government for a myriad of suspected activities, including illegal drugs, tax evasion and perjury, he shouldn't get special treatment. But failing a drug test and blaming it on an innocent teammate? If true, he should not be part of the 2007 Giants.

I should also note reports from last year that Bonds at least once refused to pinch-hit on a day he didn't start. If true, this also is a firing offense in my book. You can hate the media, you can be a disagreeable grump, you can be a loner and prima donna, but if you refuse to help the team on the field, take a hike.

To sort out the truth from hearsay, whisper, conjecture, and media bias against Bonds, I leave you to read the news story and judge for yourself. I'm keeping an open mind. I suspect the media takes angles to cast Bonds in the worst light possible, but I also reject the common idea among Bonds apologists that he's the victim of a conspiracy. I totally agree that most sportswriters view the Bonds/McGwire/steroids/etc issue from atop a garbage heap of sanctimony that they mistake for perspective, as John of OBM frequently reminds us. This week's Hall of Fame vote is a perfect example.

No doubt this story will grow exponentially in coming days. Also, keep an eye on the unfolding story of how the Giants are trying to rewrite contracts. I believe it was first reported here -- a scoop for MLB.com, fer crissake -- and ties in with Sabean bringing an old hand back to help in the front office, reported here.

Worrell's End

2007-01-10T14:23:00.000-08:00

Now we know who Russ Ortiz will replace on the 40-man roster. Tim Worrell today announced he's retiring. No word exactly why, but no doubt the injuries took their toll. It had to be bad for him to leave $2 million on the table, which is what the Giants owed him for 2007. UPDATE: This story says he wasn't making progress rehabbing his neck and shoulder injuries.

**

UPDATE: At least one of Worrell's body parts is working fine: "I have four sons in baseball to coach and my wife is expecting again," he told a reporter.

Also: The SJ Merc tells us Worrell will still get paid his $2 M this year. I've added the figure to the bottom of the roster on the right.

Russ Never Sleeps

2007-01-09T20:51:00.000-08:00

Believe it or not, the Giants have just signed Russ Ortiz. Not David Ortiz. Not Manny Ortez. Russ Ortiz. The guy who's been historically bad for two years running. Not satisfied in bringing the washed-up former Giant to spring training as a non-roster invitee, the team has reportedly signed him to a one-year contract for the major league minimum of $380,000.

Before you go absolutely shit-ballistic, remember that amount of money these days is practically backwash. I just used more than half that sum to line the insides of a pair of shoes I found uncomfortably big but was too lazy to return. Piffle, I say!

Furthermore, he's not guaranteed to make the team. Brian Sabean isn't that crazy.

We hope.

Here's what Sabes told the Associated Press:

Sabean said Ortiz will compete with rookie left-hander Jonathan Sanchez for the fifth spot, while Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey have found their niche in the bullpen and will likely be used primarily in relief this season.

In other words, two guys who really should stay in the bullpen, Correia and Hennessey, will do so -- good move. (What? You disagree? State your case!)

Plus, the Giants will have more competition for Sanchez, who might not be ready to be a starter. Based on his work in the rotation at the end of last year, I think it's apparent he needs more time to refine his secondary pitches. He can do that in the Giants bullpen and still be useful, like he was out of the bullpen last year. Or he can start the year in the Fresno rotation. If Ortiz stinks in spring training and Sanchez excels, put Sanchez in the rotation and send Russ on his way with $380,000 in his back pocket.

The only real downside for now is that someone must be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Ortiz (if in fact he's been signed to a major-league contract -- the article wasn't specific about it, and sfgiants.com hasn't indicated a roster change as of this writing). But Scott Munter is an easy choice, and pretty soon the Giants will be able to place a few players on the 60-day DL. I'm not sure about the rules and timing, but perhaps with some fancy footwork, they may not have to drop anyone.

I'll admit there's another risk: that the Giants suck anyway, and Ortiz is just barely good enough to pitch most of the year, thus blocking the development of one of the Giants youngsters. The counterargument to that: Why waste the major-league pre-arbitration clock time of a young (read: cheap) player to get cuffed around in the bigs? Let Sanchez (or Lincecum, or Misch) bide his time in the minors.

OK, one more downside: Even if he's pretty good, we'll probably have to watch innings like this: Two strikes, then three straight balls high and outside, walk. Full-count, strike out. Full-count, single. Full-count, pop-up. Two quick strikes, three balls in the dirt, a couple foul balls, another walk. Etc. From 1999 to 2002, Northern California men suffered what was known as "Ortizian hair loss" whenever Russ pitched. Pulled it out by the fistfuls, I tell you.

You're going to hear a lot of bitching and moaning about this move in coming days. But I remain optimstic and, like Russ, put my faith in the Big Guy. (You know: Leo Mazzone.) If there's a tiny chance Russ can recapture his mojo -- and he claims he's finally figured out his mechanical problems with help from Mazzone and Puerto Rican food -- it's the bargain of the century. If he continues to be mojo-free, the Giants lose $380,000 and Scott Munter to waivers. Besides, if Sanchez really isn't ready, would you rather have Damian Moss or Sun-Woo Kim as the fifth starter?

N.L. West Head to Head, Part 2: The Padres

2007-01-08T12:11:00.000-08:00

In my last post I got some flack for a) not evaluating benches and defenses and b) giving too much credit to the Rockies with my prediction of an 11-7 record against the Giants.

The author responds: First, Coors Field is a hellhole where KTVU broadcasts go to die. It's an extreme home advantage, and the Giants aren't good enough to make up for it at sea level. Plus I wanted to get a rise out of you.

Second, defensive evaluations are tough even with the newest, most-fangled statistics. But defense is important, OK, so I'll give a very brief eval from now on. Please don't swallow it all in one bite. As for benches ("we don't need no stinkin'..."), they're important if two teams are evenly matched in all other categories. We're talking, say, two or three at-bats per game and maybe two or three player/innings on defense, compared to 40 or 45 at-bats per game for the regulars. Benches make more of a difference when replacing oft-injured starters, but that comes down to luck, really. Why? A really good bench player will end up starting or heavily platooning, anyway (See Roberts, Dave), so guys who project as bench-and-bench-only aren't that good (see Ellison, Jason). When lifetime pine-riders replace an injured starter and end up performing better than the starter, it's usually not something we can predict. Usually. At least it's beyond my powers of statistical analysis, which extends slightly beyond pulling boogers out of my nose. Metaphorically speaking.

Third, if you want to know who won the Barry Zito caption contest, read to the end.

Bring on the Saint Douglas Fathers.

The projected lineups

G's

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
1B Aurilia/Klesko
LF Bonds
2B Durham
RF Winn
C Molina
3B Feliz

P's

2B M. Giles
3B Kouzmanoff
RF B. Giles
1B Gonzalez
CF Cameron
C Bard
LF Branyan/(Cust? Sledge?)
SS Greene

Comments: When you run down those lineups, there isn't much reason to believe the Giants are better offensively. If M. Giles leads off, he'll likely get on base (career OBP: .361, ZIPS '07 projection: .356) as much as or more than Roberts (career: .344, ZIPS: .350), though he's not as much a threat to steal. SF has the OBP advantage with Vizquel batting second, but B. Giles's OPS will likely match or top whoever bats 3rd, and A. Gonzalez is not yet 25 and could easily match or top a declining Bonds. Bard seems a better batsman than Molina, and Greene is slightly less sucky than Feliz. Branyan is strictly platoon, but with a good platoon partner could easily top Randy Winn's output. It's not hopeful.

Rating: N at SF, O at SD

The projected rotations

S.F.

Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
5th guy

S.D.

Peavy
C. Young
Maddux
Hensley
Thompson

Comments: Peavy very very good. Probably better than Zito. Chris Young very good. Probably as good as Cain this year, unless Cain's learning curve is more like a learning express elevator to the executive suite, baby, yeah! Ahem. Greg Maddux, in a pitcher's park, will be more like Dodger Maddux than Cub Maddux, approach 200 innings and not walk a lot of guys. In other words, he'll likely do what the Giants with fingers crossed hope to get out of Matt Morris. Hensley/Lowry? Both are wild cards. Let's go to the ZIPS:

Hensley 161 IP / 18 HR / 65 BB / 104 K / 4.14 ERA
Lowry 182 IP / 22 HR / 65 BB / 130 K / 4.15 ERA

Throw out the fifth starter as statistical noise, and you have two pretty well-matched rotations.

Rating: N at SF, N at SD

Projected Bullpens: Uh-oh. Hoffman, Linebrink, Meredith were badda-bing, badda-bang, badda-boom in the late innings last year. No reason to think otherwise this year, though Meredith can't possibly be that good. Can he? Gulp. And Hoffman has to decline at some point, right? RIGHT? Please, doc, I can't take it anymore!

Rating: OO at SD, OO at SF

Outfield defense: The Giants have no answer for Cameron. Winn is a bit better than Giles, and Bonds can't be any worse than Branyan or Cust. Cameron trumps all. Adv: SD. Infield: Gonzalez and Giles on the right side are plus-plus defenders, Greene is spotty at short and Kouzmanoff an unknown quantity at three-bee. Giants will be better on the left side unless Feliz sits, which for offense sake, we hope he does. Adv: None. Bench: Todd Walker! No, Todd Linden! Jack Cust! No, Mark Sweeney! Do I have to?

I say San Diego's bullpen and younger cleanup hitter gives the Pads a slight edge at this point. Unless S.F.'s young bullpenners have breakout years and all their oldsters hit the ball hard, S.D. takes 11 of 18.

*Contest winner is Paul, for the very first caption. Depraved, but with a frisson of self-awareness and overtones of pop-culture criticism.

N.L. West Head to Head, Part 1: The Rockies

2007-01-05T12:50:00.000-08:00

Now that most of the free-agent dust has settled, we can start comparing the Giants to their NL West competitors. No doubt there will be a few more signings around the division (David Wells? Jeff Weaver?) and trades, perhaps not quite as momentous as Randy Johnson-back-to Arizona, but let's play with what we have and see how the Giants stack up.

As a basis, I'm going to use a projection system called ZIPS, which just released its 2007 estimates (BP's PECOTA is not yet ready), but I'll also use some common sense and a sprinkling of conjecture pulled from certain body cavities only the Transportation Security Agency is allowed to explore.

Each day I'll line up the Giants versus a different NL West rival. I'll compare starting lineups, starting rotations, and bullpens and rate the comparisons as GG (big advantage Giants), G (adv. Giants), N (neutral), O (adv. opponent) and OO (gack). I'll assign a rating for home games and away games. Because it's Friday and no one's paying attention anyway, let's start with the Rockies:

The projected lineups

S.F.

CF Roberts
SS Vizquel
1B Aurilia/Klesko
LF Bonds
2B Durham
RF Winn
C Molina
3B Feliz

Rox

CF Taveras
SS Tulowitzki
1B Helton
LF Holliday
3B Atkins
RF Hawpe/Baker
2B Matsui
C Torrealba

Comments: Unless Taveras and Tulowitzki quickly improve their offensive games, the Giants have the upper hand in the first two batting slots. Colorado may slot Jamey Carroll or Kaz Matsui in the 1-2 spots, too. Matsui was much better as a Rock than a Met, and Carroll has shows flashes of OBP prowess in his utility career, including a fine 2006 as the main 2Ber for Colo. ZIPS is impressed with Tulowitzki, who could soon put up Aurilia numbers (the 20 HR version, not the 37 HR version). If Roberts is injured or neutralized by LHP, and Omar declines, the Giants lose their advantage quickly.

Other than Molina providing a bit more power at the bottom than Torrealba, the rest of the way it's all Colorado. Holliday and Atkins should continue to mash. Hawpe and Baker will probably platoon, which according to ZIPS gives the Rockies a two-headed monster (Hawpe: .368 OBP, .493 SLG; Baker: .342 OBP, .504 SLG). Between the two I'll bet they hit 35-40 HRs. Hawpe also has a cannon of an arm. And we haven't even gotten to Todd Helton. Will he regain his fearsome power, or continue what was a noticeable decline in '06? Back problems are a bad sign...

The upshot: Colorado has quietly assembled a homegrown, well, if not a murderer's row, at least a circle of muggers. But if Tulowitzki takes a big leap forward, Taveras learns how to lead off with a .360+ OBP, and Helton stays relatively healthy, we'll see a lot of games like this. Take note: while Atkins and Hawpe seem to hit equally well on the road, Helton and Holliday have big career splits. Historically the Rockies offense stinks at Mays Field, but with this year's crew, I fear the Giants have no advantage.

Rating: N at S.F., OO at Colo

The projected rotations

S.F.

Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
5th guy

Rox

Jeff Francis
Josh Fogg
B.K. Kim
Taylor Buchholz
Jason Hirsch

Comments: With Jason Jennings gone, the Rox rotation is a bit unknown, with the two rookies acquired for Jennings tentatively penciled in. Francis could be very very good; Francis could be better than Zito. Cook's heavy sinker is well-suited for Coors, which started playing far more normally last year anyway. On the Giant side, Lowry has the Coors heebie-jeebies; Zito's thrown one game there and thrown it relatively well (7 IP, 12 baserunners, 1 ER). On the whole Giants starters are expected to be very good next year. Even Morris should bounce back, says ZIPS. Colorado will only match them if the rookies bust out.

Rating: G at S.F., G at Colo.

Projected bullpens

To save space I won't list all the names. We know this: Colorado turned journeyman lefty Brian Fuentes into a damn good closer last year. He strikes out more than a batter an inning, he doesn't give up many hits. Better than, ahem, the Giants' closer. Colorado also picked up LaTroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt, two vets who could be very good. File under: you never know with relievers. Like the Giants, they also have several live young arms, two of whom (Manuel Corpas, Ramon Ramirez) had very impressive debuts last year. Putting Benitez aside for a moment -- gonna need a forklift! -- the Giants bullpen is roughly akin, though their young live arms (Wilson, Sadler) had less success than the abovementioned Rox.

Rating: O at S.F., OO at Colo.

If the teams as constituted today played 18 games split between S.F. and Denver, I'd guess the Rockies would win 11.

Oh, Stop That!

2007-01-04T11:58:00.000-08:00

Busy today, but not too busy to giggle sophomorically at the possible captions for this.

****

P.M. UPDATE: Reports say the Yankees have reached a deal to send Randy Johnson back to Arizona. Good, I say. The Unit is in decline, just had back surgery, and the D-Backs are giving up Luis Vizcaino (a good young reliever), prospects Ross Ohlendorf (p), Alberto Gonzalez (ss), and perhaps a third prospect. It might make the D-Backs slightly better this year -- if Johnson stays healthy -- but it puts a dent in their farm system, which is their biggest weapon in the years ahead. Unfortunately, none of the prospects are among their top ten, according to BP's Kevin Goldstein. But think how fun it'll be to boo the Unit again. And in 2008, too: Arizona will reportedly sign him to a one-year contract extension.

Even better:

Rich Aurilia vs. Randy Johnson lifetime
41 AB / 3 HR / 4 BB / 13 K / .341 AVG / .400 OBP / .585 SLG

Dude! Suite!

2007-01-03T08:30:00.003-08:00

The contract details are out (thanks to Martin for passing along the link in yesterday's comments). Zito gets $10 M this year, $14.5 M in '08, $18.5 M from '09 to '11, then $19 M and $20 M in the final two years. In addition to the innings-pitched trigger, there are a passel of award bonuses and, other than green M&Ms, my favorite contract rider: "Zito also will stay in a suite for road trips."

Which begs the question: is there a limit to how many suites a team can contractually guarantee? What if they have five superstars and their hotel in Cincinnati only has four suites? Does the highest-paid star get to stay at a different hotel? Do the superstars compare suites and get jealous? Do you still have to obey curfew if you stay in a suite? Do sports teams really have curfews anymore, or are they reserved for football teams the night before the Super Bowl? Why does the new album by Yusuf Islam (aka Cat Stevens) only say "Yusuf" on the cover? Is there a wee marketing problem with his last name?

Enough of my non-sensical ramblings. Let's bring in someone else's. Hello? Bruce? You there, pal?

Like all of the coolest cats in the universe, Barry Zito isn't real big on hassles. He likes a warm breeze, smart conversation, a sensible guitar riff, the simple beauty of a 3-and-1 pitch to Vladimir Guerrero.

Señoras y señores, it's Bruce Jenkins of the Chronicle! Bruce likes Barry Zito because Barry Zito is cool. And he's a cat. Bruce also thinks a 3-and-1 pitch to Vlad has "simple beauty," which is the last phrase I would use to describe a pitch that has a 93% chance of a) being knocked over the outfield fence or b) being lined off the pitcher's skull.

One more thing: "Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Joe Strummer, and I'm going to endeavor not to disappoint you with several sensible guitar riffs!"

You have to understand where Bruce is coming from. He also liked Neifi Perez because he wore his socks high.

The way it looks from here, Zito is under no pressure at all.

[Ed. note: "From here" = inside the velvet coffin of Jenkins's Chronicle cubicle, where he has so much seniority he'll never be fired.] Cool people don't feel pressure. Especially not when they're being force-fit into Bruce Jenkins's oversimplified hacked-up hairball of a universe in which reside Good Barry/Bad Barry. The Bad Barry is not cool, and the people who decided to bring him back (the same people who are overpaying for the coolness of Good Barry) have performed a colossal, monumental breach of coolness.

There will be a considerable amount of tension around the Giants this season,

Perhaps because they will suck. Please continue...

but it will fully surround Barry Bonds and the prideless executives, Peter Magowan and Larry Baer, who can't seem to live without the sordid swirl

One of my favorite flavors. You should try it.

of steroid associations, a broken-down ballplayer, a disgusted commissioner and the threat of a federal indictment...

If Barry Bonds is "broken-down," Scott Rolen is positively glue-factory and Nomar Garciaparra is a partially-decomposed zombie who roams the earth and feasts on succulent human flesh. Which means he's either a Dodger or a member of the New York media. Back to you, Bruce:

New York is the worldliest setting in America, but patience runs a bit thin in sporting circles. Struggling athletes come to dread taking the field, or even turning on the radio. Not to suggest that Zito could ever be Ed Whitson, but he'd call B.S. on the type of scrutiny that takes place in that town, day after day.

So what are you suggesting, Bruce?

Whatever; he would have won his 18 games there and survived just fine. But Shea Stadium isn't Mays Field (the only name that seems to fit), where ownership has made certain that Bonds is the story, every hour of every day.

Sorry, Bruce, I don't quite follow, though I dig the "Mays Field" shout-out. Zito would have done quite well in New York, but he chose San Francisco because it's cooler, except that it won't be because of Barry Bonds, except that's OK because Bonds will suck up everyone's attention and just let Zito do his dudular pitching thing? Does not compute. Maybe your final paragraph will clear things up:

Come spring training, Zito won't believe the coolness of his situation. Just pitch, man, that's it. It eventually might bother him that the team he left behind, Oakland, does everything better than the Giants except play in a suitable ballpark. He might find that the Mets are the team really bent on winning, and the Giants' barren farm system is a product of their lack of foresight and increasingly pitiful devotion to Bonds. He might discover that when a late-inning situation calls for a pinch-hitter, Bonds might not feel like leaving the clubhouse. Let's hope the reality doesn't strike too hard, because the Giants acquired one hell of a pitcher, and San Francisco is lucky to have him.

In all of this analysis -- and I'll give him props for the "barren farm system" comment -- Jenkins leaves out three factors: Barry Bonds will only be with the Giants one more year. Barry Zito will be with the Giants through 2013, at least. And Barry Zito has a much better chance of declining than improving over the life of the contract. (Jenkins could have looked at statistics beyond the win column, but no, he knows the high-sock, cool-cat mark of a winner when he sees it.)

Jenkins has it backwards. With the barren farm system and the "lack of foresight" and the Giants' general incompentence viz a viz Oakland, it's not the one year of surly steroidal swirling slugger but the half-decade to follow that Zito will come to regret. This year, a healthy and unindicted Bonds will help this team immensely, no matter how uncool he is.

The Winner

2007-01-02T11:20:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year, everyone!

A couple weeks ago I asked you for your best guesses on the details of Barry Zito's upcoming contract. Here's what he's getting from the Giants:

7 years
$126 guaranteed
1 yr club option/$18 mil.
full no-trade clause

As Flavor Flav once said, "God damn, telegram!" I still haven't seen the year-by-year breakdown of salary, though news reports put his '07 paycheck at $10 million. Any other details out there?

No one nailed the exact numbers -- 7/126 or 8/137 -- but most guesses were in the ballpark. This is subjective, but it comes down to these two:

Elliot
6 yr/$126 M
1 yr club option $23 M
full no-trade

Mark Raines
8 yr/$136 M
club option 2 yr/$34 M
no-trade first four years

Mark went overboard on the years and dollars -- if he hadn't added the option years, he'd be spot-on. Elliot came closer to nailing the structure of the contract, off by only one year and a few (million) dollars. Elliot also guessed the full no-trade clause.

In my original post I said guessing the right team was a tie-breaker, and Mark correctly guessed Giants, but Elliot still gets the nod with Mark a very strong second. Elliot: Send me (leftymalo at gmail dot com) your mailing address, and I'll send you the promised commemorative pin. Mark: if you can track me down at a ballgame, I'll buy you a beer. As always, once my season ticket group holds its annual draft in March, I'll post the games I'll likely attend this year.

Past v. Future

2006-12-29T10:09:00.000-08:00

A longtime reader expressed surprise in the comments (which I'm trying to fix, by the way, to avoid the dreaded comment spam) that I wasn't so worked up about the Zito news.

Like Grant over at the McChronic, my mind is of two minds. As always, he does a great job of portraying this particular anguish: a mind with two minds is a terrible thing to taste.

Where the hell was I? Oh yes: Barry Zito. It comes down to this. You can let your fan-boy mind get giddy at the thought of a Cy Young winner and Most Durable Starter and Groovy Dude coming to the Giants -- our Giants, yes, indeed, he chose us! He loves the Giants, and by extension...he loves me! It's very self-affirming.

Or you can strap on your nerdhat --

you know you have one -- and tsk-tsk at the declining K-rate, the growing tendency to give up the big fly, and all the other indications that there is a good chance Zito will not be worth the cool buds and tasty waves of cash he's about to surf through.

Fanboy v. Nerdhat. It's a clash between past and future. Fanboy says this guy's been good, even really good, hey, everyone wants him so he must be really really good and will continue to be so. Nerdhat says, in fact, ahem, I regret to inform that past success is not necessarily a predictor of future outcome. (No wonder Nerdhat can't get chicks.)

The supreme leader of the Nerdhats, Baseball Prospectus's Nate Silver, unleashed his two different prediction systems on Zito and found the one that calculates dollar value (MORP) was much friendlier than the one that calculates performance metrics (PECOTA). Here's why:

The key difference between these two sets of projections boils down to the predictive value of ERA; if Zito’s ERAs were an accurate reflection of his ability (as our “dumb” projection assumes), then this contract would have been perfectly reasonable. But while ERA is a very useful backward-looking metric — it’s helpful in settling Cy Young Award debates, for example — it’s not such a good forward-looking metric. A pitcher’s peripheral statistics [strikeouts, walks, groundball/flyball ratios, etc] predict ERA much better than past ERA itself. Sometimes the differences are trivial, and sometimes they amount to 57 million dollars.

I’m beating a dead horse here, I know, but it’s for a good reason: misunderstanding the predictive value of past ERA is the single biggest mistake that teams make in spending their free agent dollars.

The Nerdhat in me agrees. The Fanboy in me desperately wants Nerdhat to manger merde et mourir. Or in more Nerdhatlian terms, Fanboy wants Zito to be an outlier, to confound the general trends, to show heart and courage and veteran savviness and gnarly shreditude. It'll take a fair amount of luck for Barry Zito to fulfill the promise of his contract, but when you really think about it, how often does a baseball team win a championship without a fair amount of luck?

One last thought courtesy of Elbo before I leave for the long weekend: Moneyball ushered in the concept of the undervalued skill. For Billy Beane it was on-base percentage. When others caught on, it was reportedly defense. Then a counterintuitive writer famously (to certain Giants' fans, anyway) mused that Sabean's strategy of signing old players was the next step in this philosophy. Is the new undervalued concept the long-term contract? If teams are flush with cash and can insure those contracts, perhaps paying Barry Zito $18 million in 2013, or Alfonso Soriano $45 million in 2018, or whatever, is a huge bargain because of inflation.

SMALL PRINT UPDATES:

Zito is now on the 40-man roster with a '07 salary of $10 m, the approximate figure the papers are reporting today. (Sounds like the contract will be heavily backloaded, surprise surprise.)

Now reading: Nicole Krauss's The History of Love. Actually I just finished it. Highly recommended. It's a bittersweet sad comedy about an old Jewish New Yorker who wrote a book when he was a young man in Eastern Europe, but his best friend stole it with the best intentions and published it as his own. It's about beautiful souls reborn in new bodies -- or is it all one soul? -- and the magic of the written word. Krauss has a fantastic ear for her characters' voices -- cranky octogenarian Jews (like there's another kind? I ask you), depressed single mothers, Russian immigrant teenagers.

Now listening to: X's Under the Big Black Sun. If back in 1982 my 12-year-old tastes delved beyond the ever-pungent Bon Scott versus Brian Johnson debate, I would have been totally in love with Exene Cervenka. Fortunately I got religion, if not puppy love, in my late teens. After collecting dust for a few years, this one's still an all-time favorite. Just give me those old-time punkabilly harmonies and I'm a happy middle-aged guy.

Zito Contract Details

2006-12-28T12:18:00.000-08:00

* If Zito pitches 600 innings over the last three years of the agreement, 400 innings over the last two or 200 in the final year of the deal, he can either exercise a player option or opt out of the contract.

It's an odd configuration. Zito's career high in innings is 231. His low is 214. But how often will he go well beyond 200 in his mid-30s? It's very hard to say; one comparable could be Tom Glavine, who has similar stuff and was similarly durable in his younger years. After his 30th birthday, Glavine's IP went like this: 235, 240, 229, 234, 241, 219. If Zito has a career anywhere near Glavine's, it will be money well-spent.

The way it's structured, Zito will have to pitch more than half the season in 2013; if he misses at least half his starts, he'd have to throw in the vicinity of 240-250 innings in 2011 and 2012 to trigger the option.

I can't believe I'm crunching innings-pitched numbers for the year 2013. Won't Matt Cain's DX4 Vectral Clone be on the mound by then?

* Full no-trade clause.

Ouch.

* As part of his agreement with the Giants, Zito will fund the construction of youth fields in the San Francisco area through his foundation and donate to his charity, "Strikeouts for Troops."

Warm and fuzzy.

When Barry Met Barry

2006-12-27T12:00:00.000-08:00

Well, well, well. Lookee here. The Giants have confounded everyone by finally overpaying in a grand royal way for a top-line free agent. Welcome, Barry Zito.

ESPN's Peter Gammons says the contract is seven years, $126 million, which averages to $18 mil a year. The little box next to that story, if you don't feel like clicking through, calls Zito "Mr. Dependable."

Here's what the Giants are getting: a durable pitcher whose fastball rarely approaches 90 MPH and whose strikeout rate is slowly declining. He gives up a lot of fly balls, which is probably OK in the NL West with Mays Field, Petco Park, and Dodger Stadium all fly-ball-friendly. If his skills are actually in decline, pitching in the National League will help mask that decline to some extent.

The conventional wisdom, if you gather it all up from various corners of the Internet and mush it into a big bland ball of consensus, is that Zito will be a pretty good pitcher for a while, but not $18 M-a-year worth of good. The Giants have made a big bold statement, but their voice sounds suspiciously like that of someone who has been sucking on a nitrous oxide tank. This is not a rational development. It may end up working, crazy-like-a-fox-like, but a lot of things have to go right.

And so: I am neither anguished nor thrilled. A 1-2 punch of Cain and Zito will be nice to have in Zito's prime years. My main worry is that the Giants will have little or no fiscal room to move for offense, which given the state of their farm system, they'll have to buy at market rates for the foreseeable future.

They may need more offense in 2007, too -- yesterday's news is that the feds now have access to MLB's drug-testing data, which could throw more legal hurdles in front of Barry Bonds. Place your bets now on whether Barry (Bonds, not Zito) spends more days in left field or in court in 2007. Could this be why his contract has mysteriously taken so long to hash out?

If things fall apart and Bonds isn't signed for 2007, his money -- a reported $16 million -- will go to Zito, and I assume the Giants will have a few extra million to find more offense. They're damn sure going to need it. With Zito on board, look for one of the Giants' young lefties to become January's hottest trade bait.

I'll add details of the Zito contract as they come in.

R.I.P. James Brown

2006-12-26T12:05:00.000-08:00

The Godfather of Soul. The Hardest Working Man in Show Business. Mr. Dynamite. Soul Brother No. 1. The Baddest of the Bad, The Coolest of the Cool. James Brown, now playing every night at the big Apollo Theater in the sky.

I never saw him live, but I had the honor of seeing the original Funky Drummer, Clyde Stubblefield, with the B3 Bombers at Chicago's Green Mill club one night. It might have been the show they recorded for this album, but I'm not certain.

Thanks in large part to the Giants using it as a theme song one year, "I Got You (I Feel Good)" is on my short, short list of great songs I never want to hear again, but I'll never get tired of "Cold Sweat," the shout-out of cities on the route of "Night Train," the staccato horn punches in "Sex Machine," or a thousand other riffs and licks, beats and growls that gave birth to vast sweeps of the music landscape we now take for granted.

A Message From Brian Sabean

2006-12-22T15:24:00.000-08:00

Happy Holidays to all you punks, lunatic fringers, dead-enders, whiners, unbelievers, and season-ticket holders. May you get Steve Trachsel's used jockstrap from the 1998 one-game playoff in your stocking.

No Supp For You?

2006-12-21T11:27:00.000-08:00

Jeff Weaver, Mark Mulder, David Wells, Steve Trachsel, and a few other pieces of bellybutton lint are still floating free, but the last big FA pitching acquisition for several teams has come down to Barry Zito and Jeff Suppan. The former will probably get $17 million a year or more, the latter in the $10 M per year range. That's a big difference. The question is, will they perform all that differently in the next three or four years?

According to BP's PECOTA projection system, yes, they will, but it's the difference between Ugh and Double Ugh.

PECOTA on Zito: He'll post 4.2 WARP in '07 and decline to 2.9 WARP in '10. That's worth annual paychecks in the $4-6M range (or, to parallel the decline, in the $6-4M range), not $15-20M.

PECOTA thinks even worse of Suppan's near future: he'll contribute 2.9 wins above replacement (WARP) in '07 and fall steadily from there. In dollar terms, he'll be worth $3.7 M next year, not $11 M. In non-geek terms, for the rest of the decade he'll post ERAs in the mid-4s or worse and see his K/BB rate fall to Rueter-esque levels.

[As a point of comparison, Jason Schmidt posted ace-like WARP scores of 8.7 and 7.9 in '03 and '04, then 3.5 in his injury-plagued '05.]

One thing Suppan has been the past four years is consistent, with IP ranging from 188 to 204, HR allowed from 21 to 25, walks from 51 to 69, and Ks from 104 to 114. In that time his OPS against has ranged from .754 to .781.

Zito has also been consistent, just up a couple notches: IP from 213 to 231, HRs from 19 to 28, BBs from 81 to 99, and Ks from 146 to 171. He's been more inconsistent in how hard he's been hit.

With the payroll escalation this winter, perhaps Zito's good (but declining) K rates and past stretches of brilliance are worth $15M-plus annually. Perhaps Suppan's workmanlike consistency will continue for three or four years and provide a 190-inning certainty for his employers.

With either guy, you're paying big bucks essentially for innings. Let's not pooh-pooh innings too much: injuries can force replacement level pitchers into the rotation, or force young guys up too soon. But when an organization's strength is its young pitching, and the gameplan is to rebuild (even though the brass won't use that word) around that strength, why sink megabucks for megayears into guys who will simply block the door in a year or two?

The Giants would be much better served either signing a cheap veteran (for those sick of that strategy, sorry, but in this case it makes sense), or giving a homegrown kid the job (Hennessey, Misch, even giving Correia another chance to start). Then fortify the bullpen, and either spend the outrageous fortune on offense or plow it back into the farm system. Hell, overspend a little on Mark Mulder, give him lots of incentives and an option that locks in if he hits health and performance milestones. If his arm is toast, it's toast, but if he recovers to pitch anything near his former levels, voila, you have better than Suppan and perhaps as good as Zito.

Of course, as soon as I hit the "publish" button on this post, I'll find out the Giants have signed Suppan to a 4-year, $48 million deal. To which I'll say, Welcome to Stem Cell Ville, Jeff.

Off the Island

2006-12-20T08:34:00.000-08:00

With Ryan Klesko on board at a very reasonable $1.75 million plus incentives, the Giants now have to bump someone from the 40-man roster. It is officially topped up at 40, but when (or is that "if"?) Bonds gets around to finalizing his contract*, someone will be pushed off the liferaft into shark-infested waters. (Note: this half-assed metaphor assumes the Giants are a safe if somewhat temporary haven and all other teams circling around are fearsome remorseless predators. If the fundamental premise of the metaphor is flawed, especially the first part of it, please go complain to your babysitter.)

So, who's off? Number one candidate is Lance "You're No Longer My Amigo" Niekro, who may become a nice bench player someday, think Eduardo Perez or Greg Colbrunn but with better defense, but a platooner who can only play first base and can't hit right-handed pitching is a luxury not all teams can afford. Niekro would be well-advised to learn a little outfield, a la Craig Wilson, or refine the reportedly serviceable knuckleball he learned from his dad and uncle. If Lance is released -- I'm informed he has no minor-league options left -- it's unlikely he'll go unclaimed. Injuries sabotaged his early career development. He may come around in his early 30s, and we wish him well. I just don't think it'll happen under the Giants' roof.

Number two candidate is Jason Ellison, a similiar story to Niekro in terms of age and talent. Ellison's shown flashes of major-league competence with his speed and, for a while, on-base ability. But after the first couple months of '05, he's looked awful. Opponents quickly got his number: suspect baserunning, poor plate discipline. Like Niekro, his numbers look good against LHP, but it's hard to keep a speed-and-defense bench guy who can't hit righties and, once on base, can't be counted on to steal a bag in a late-inning situation. If he were 23 with options, sure. But he'll be 29 in April. I'd love to see him stick around and contribute, but it's a longshot. (Freddie Lewis, who fits a somewhat similar profile, just turned 26. No spring chicken, and he, too, may never progress beyond a "AAAA" talent level. But Lewis at least projects to have more offensive upside.)

On the pitching side, the most expendable is Scott Munter. I'm surprised he has stayed this long. He has one pitch, a power sinker, which even when it's spot-on doesn't garner many strikeouts. And it hasn't been spot-on for a year. With his mechanics retooled he's at best a middle reliever, the very definition of fungible. In fact, I'd rather see Munter dropped from the 40-man than either Niekro or Ellison, but it probably won't happen that way.

Other than simply dropping a player, the Giants could trade one (or more) from the 40-man. Entirely possible. Giants fans everywhere would dance in the streets if Armando Benitez were shipped to Florida, but recent reports say that deal is all but dead because of concerns over Mando's knees. (You could see that coming a mile away.)

The other way to clear 40-man space is use the 60-day disabled list. Mike Matheny is a prime candidate, as is Merkin Valdez, who just had Tommy John surgery. Indeed, these seem like the most sensible options -- and consider a second move will be necessary if/when the Giants acquire another starting pitcher, which Sabean is intent upon -- but "most sensible" doesn't always square with the Giants' actions.

* UPDATE: The Contra Costa Times writes: "There has been talk in legal circles that Bonds is seeking to guarantee his salary in the event the grand jury indicts him and Major League Baseball seeks to suspend him."

The Chronicle says: "A source with direct knowledge of the tentative agreement between the Giants and Barry Bonds said Bonds agreed to defer considerably more than $5 million of the roughly $20 million he could receive under the one-year deal. In fact, the source said, all of the $4 million in proposed incentives would be paid out after 2007, in addition to a good portion of the guaranteed money. The two sides are going over contract language painstakingly, causing the long delay in announcing the deal. Bonds still has not taken his physical, and a source assured the contract is not hung up for any medical reason."

This could get interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if 2007 is Bondsless, after all.